426 Pates Lake Ct · Lovejoy, GA 30228

$285,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,067 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 48 Days on market

Built 1995 3,049 sqft lot $138/sqft · 25% below area Est $378k · 25% under $33/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Unlock the potential of your dream homes in the desirable Pates Lake subdivision! This home includes 3-bedroom, plus a bonus room, that can be used as an additional room and 2.5 bathroom, it offers a blend of space and comfort, ideal for family living and entertaining. This charming property is ideal for investors or a family looking to add their personal touch. Nestled in a serene setting this property invites you to create your own oasis while enjoying the vibrant community around you.

Key facts

• 3,049 sq ft lot
• 4 garage spots
• Built 1995

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Paved roads and GPS directions
• HOA & community: Annual association fee: $400; Association covers insurance, grounds maintenance, pest control, security, swimming and tennis facilities; Property is in an association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener; Four garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; Electricity available; Natural gas available; Cable available; Other electric service
• Home design: Two levels; Resale property; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Front porch; Lake community

Interior

• Kitchen: White cabinets; Other cabinet finishes; Eat-in kitchen; Laminate counters; Pantry; Dishwasher; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on main level; One main-level bedroom; Three upper-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Wood
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom; Master bathroom with double vanity, separate tub and shower, vaulted ceilings
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; Permanent attic stairs; Walk-in closets; Double vanity in bathrooms; Gas log fireplace with gas starter in family room; No shared/common walls
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry room (in hall)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-433 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $209k (26.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (29.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (29.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#317 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Henry County (rural): math 24% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #89 of 174 in GA (top 51%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Dutchtown Elementary School (math 25% / reading 28%, grade F, #718 of 1,228 statewide, top 59%, 932 students, 47% FRL); Dutchtown Middle School (math 21% / reading 37%, grade F, #258 of 470 statewide, top 55%, 1,092 students, 50% FRL); Dutchtown High (math 32% / reading 38%, grade F, #84 of 424 statewide, top 20%, 1,861 students, 43% FRL) — zoned schools at 46% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 547 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,989 units permitted in Henry County in 2024 (92 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Henry County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $180k; list at $285k implies a 58% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,334 (29.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.50%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $378,051
• List price: $285,000
• Delta: -24.61%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.2% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-75,278
• Equity at exit: $42,494

10-year hold

• IRR: -31.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.34×
• Total profit: $-107,270
• Equity at exit: $24,642

Cash invested: $79,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30228

• Home prices YoY: -24.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 547
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,023 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax from tax record: −$385 /mo · $4,616/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$425
• Net cashflow: $-433

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,571

Max offer price $208,593

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-271	-5% $-352	+0% $-433	+5% $-513	+10% $-594
Rent	-10% $-592	-5% $-512	+0% $-433	+5% $-353	+10% $-273
Rate	-1.0pp $-289	-0.5pp $-360	base $-433	+0.5pp $-506	+1.0pp $-582

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,250
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1583 Pates Creek Rd Stockbridge, GA	3.0	2.0	1736	$1,711	$0.99	25d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $285,000 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $285,000 Active 47 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $285,000 Active 46 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $285,000 Active 45 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $285,000 Active 43 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $298,900 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $298,900 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $298,900 Active 37 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $298,900 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $298,900 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $298,900 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $298,900 Active 31 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $298,900 Active 30 DOM
14. 2026-05-01
    listed $298,900 Active 492-char remark
15. 2026-04-25
    listed $298,900 New 492-char remark

    Show marketing remark (492 chars)

    Unlock the potential of your dream homes in the desirable Pates Lake subdivision! This home includes 3-bedroom, plus a bonus room, that can be used as an additional room and 2.5 bathroom, it offers a blend of space and comfort, ideal for family living and entertaining. This charming property is ideal for investors or a family looking to add their personal touch. Nestled in a serene setting this property invites you to create your own oasis while enjoying the vibrant community around you.

16. 2015-07-21
    soldstatus $180,000
17. 2015-01-23
    historical
18. 2014-12-02
    price $189,500
19. 2014-10-07
    price $194,900
20. 2014-07-25
    listed $200,000 New
21. 2005-10-20
    soldstatus $196,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,616 · $385/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,616 · $385/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,280
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$4,616
• − Insurance: −$1,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,942
• − Management: −$1,942
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable loss: −$10,297
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,471
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,719/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Henry County
• NCES district ID: 1302820
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $62,594
• Composite: 26.13/100
• National rank: #7279
• State rank: #89 of 174 in GA

Livability — Lovejoy

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #317
• US rank: #17071

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Henry County · 316,359 people
• City population: 606
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 52,402
• Household income: $82,619
• Rent vs Own: 27.9% rent · 72.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1285.0

Population outlook (Henry County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 249,041 people
• By 2030: 264,369 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 294,459 · +18.2%
• By 2050: 322,249 · +29.4%
• By 2075: 392,310 · +57.5%
• By 2100: 437,836 · +75.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 63% White 23% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henry

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+29.7) · D 64.5% · R 34.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +37.1pp toward D · 2008: -7.5pp · 2024: 29.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+29.7 2020: D+20.5 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+3.2 2008: R+7.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.11%
• Current HPI: 222.0357
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.20%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+45.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Price Changed $285,000 FMLS
• 2026-06-12 Price Changed $285,000 GAMLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $298,900 FMLS
• 2026-04-25 Listed $298,900 GAMLS
• 2015-07-21 Sold (Public Records) $180,000 Public Records
• 2015-01-23 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2014-12-02 Price Changed $189,500 GAMLS
• 2014-10-07 Price Changed $194,900 GAMLS
• 2014-07-25 Listed $200,000 GAMLS
• 2005-10-20 Sold (Public Records) $196,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,616 · +10.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.