653 Sims Ave

St. Paul, MN 55106

$190,000D-

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,790 sqft · Built 1888 · SingleFamily · Pending · 28 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,488/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax + insurance: −$388
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$313
• Net cashflow: $-209/mo
• Annual: $-2,504/yr
• Cap rate: 4.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.71%
• DSCR: 0.79
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $53,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $190k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-209 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $153k (19.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $149k (21.7% below list).
• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $149k (21.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Paul Public School District (urban): math 21% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #270 of 301 in MN (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1888 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.3%/yr); 254 active listings in the ZIP; 1,202 units permitted in Ramsey County in 2024 (880 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ramsey County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 10 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $190k implies a 153% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1888 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.