653 Sims Ave · St. Paul, MN 55106

$190,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,790 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1888 4,965 sqft lot $106/sqft · 39% below area Est $319k · 40% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This property is part of a 5-property portfolio, offering 4 single-family homes and 1 duplex in the Payne/Phalen and Dayton’s Bluff neighborhoods. MLS #s available upon request. List price reflects the standalone value; portfolio purchase offers approximately an 8% discount, with a total portfolio price of $1,285,000 and an estimated 10% CAP based on current information. This 3 bedroom 2 bathroom two-story home with an attached garage/carport is leased through 10/31/26 with base rent of $1,850/month, providing immediate income. Newer water heater. Showings are limited to investors only. Just steps from Caydence Records and Coffee, Brunsons Pub, Eastside Thai, and Tongue and Cheek.

Key facts

• Newer water heater
• 4,965 sq ft lot
• Garage

Tags

• NEWER WATER HEATER
• STEPS FROM BRUNSONS PUB
• STEPS FROM EASTSIDE THAI
• STEPS FROM TONGUE AND CHEEK

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $190,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$319,202) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-209 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $153k (19.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $149k (21.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $149k (21.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Paul Public School District (urban): math 21% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #270 of 301 in MN (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.3%/yr); 254 active listings in the ZIP; 1,202 units permitted in Ramsey County in 2024 (880 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ramsey County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $190k implies a 153% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1888 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $148,847 (21.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1888 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.71%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $319,202
• List price: $190,000
• Delta: -40.48%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.26% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-38,970
• Equity at exit: $28,330

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-28,653
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55106

• Rents YoY: 6.3%
• Active inventory: 254
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,488 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$309 /mo · $3,708/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$313
• Net cashflow: $-209

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,753

Max offer price $153,140

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-101	-5% $-155	+0% $-209	+5% $-262	+10% $-316
Rent	-10% $-326	-5% $-267	+0% $-209	+5% $-150	+10% $-91
Rate	-1.0pp $-113	-0.5pp $-160	base $-209	+0.5pp $-258	+1.0pp $-308

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 695-char remark

   Show marketing remark (695 chars)

   This property is part of a 5-property portfolio, offering 4 single-family homes and 1 duplex in the Payne/Phalen and Dayton’s Bluff neighborhoods. MLS #s available upon request. List price reflects the standalone value; portfolio purchase offers approximately an 8% discount, with a total portfolio price of $1,285,000 and an estimated 10% CAP based on current information. This 3 bedroom 2 bathroom two-story home with an attached garage/carport is leased through 10/31/26 with base rent of $1,850/month, providing immediate income. Newer water heater. Showings are limited to investors only. Just steps from Caydence Records and Coffee, Brunsons Pub, Eastside Thai, and Tongue and Cheek.

2. 2026-04-13
   listed $190,000 Active 695-char remark

   Show marketing remark (695 chars)

   This property is part of a 5-property portfolio, offering 4 single-family homes and 1 duplex in the Payne/Phalen and Dayton’s Bluff neighborhoods. MLS #s available upon request. List price reflects the standalone value; portfolio purchase offers approximately an 8% discount, with a total portfolio price of $1,285,000 and an estimated 10% CAP based on current information. This 3 bedroom 2 bathroom two-story home with an attached garage/carport is leased through 10/31/26 with base rent of $1,850/month, providing immediate income. Newer water heater. Showings are limited to investors only. Just steps from Caydence Records and Coffee, Brunsons Pub, Eastside Thai, and Tongue and Cheek.

3. 2025-09-29
   historical $1,625
4. 2025-09-08
   price $1,625
5. 2025-07-24
   listed $1,699
6. 2024-07-25
   historical $1,648
7. 2024-07-18
   listed $1,648
8. 2022-11-20
   historical
9. 2014-09-08
   soldstatus $75,000
10. 2014-09-04
    soldstatus $75,000 Sold 147-char remark

    Show marketing remark (147 chars)

    Spacious classic home. New heating system and water heater. Large bedrooms, front and rear vestibules. Car port, convenient location. Easy to show.

11. 2014-09-04
    soldstatus $75,000

    Show marketing remark (147 chars)

    Spacious classic home. New heating system and water heater. Large bedrooms, front and rear vestibules. Car port, convenient location. Easy to show.

12. 2014-09-04
    soldstatus $75,000

    Show marketing remark (147 chars)

    Spacious classic home. New heating system and water heater. Large bedrooms, front and rear vestibules. Car port, convenient location. Easy to show.

13. 2014-08-16
    status Pending 147-char remark

    Show marketing remark (147 chars)

    Spacious classic home. New heating system and water heater. Large bedrooms, front and rear vestibules. Car port, convenient location. Easy to show.

14. 2014-08-12
    historical Contingent - Inspection 147-char remark

    Show marketing remark (147 chars)

    Spacious classic home. New heating system and water heater. Large bedrooms, front and rear vestibules. Car port, convenient location. Easy to show.

15. 2014-07-27
    status Active 147-char remark

    Show marketing remark (147 chars)

    Spacious classic home. New heating system and water heater. Large bedrooms, front and rear vestibules. Car port, convenient location. Easy to show.

16. 2014-07-26
    historical 147-char remark

    Show marketing remark (147 chars)

    Spacious classic home. New heating system and water heater. Large bedrooms, front and rear vestibules. Car port, convenient location. Easy to show.

17. 2014-07-09
    listed $82,500 Active 147-char remark

    Show marketing remark (147 chars)

    Spacious classic home. New heating system and water heater. Large bedrooms, front and rear vestibules. Car port, convenient location. Easy to show.

18. 2014-07-09
    listed $82,500

    Show marketing remark (147 chars)

    Spacious classic home. New heating system and water heater. Large bedrooms, front and rear vestibules. Car port, convenient location. Easy to show.

19. 2014-07-09
    listed $82,500

    Show marketing remark (147 chars)

    Spacious classic home. New heating system and water heater. Large bedrooms, front and rear vestibules. Car port, convenient location. Easy to show.

20. 2014-04-24
    price $84,900
21. 2014-04-24
    historical Contingent - Inspection
22. 2014-04-24
    status Active
23. 2014-04-24
    historical
24. 2014-03-04
    price $87,000
25. 2013-12-24
    status Active
26. 2013-12-20
    historical
27. 2013-12-20
    listed $90,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,708 · $309/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,708 · $309/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,862
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$3,708
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,429
• − Management: −$1,429
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$5,824
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,398
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,106/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Paul Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2733840
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $48,316
• Composite: 23.51/100
• National rank: #7868
• State rank: #270 of 301 in MN

Livability — St. Paul

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Paul, MN
• County: Ramsey County · 542,837 people
• City population: 280,599
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 56,708
• Household income: $70,187
• Rent vs Own: 38.9% rent · 61.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2046.0

Population outlook (Ramsey County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 603,431 people
• By 2030: 636,459 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 700,596 · +16.1%
• By 2050: 765,819 · +26.9%
• By 2075: 929,297 · +54.0%
• By 2100: 1,053,924 · +74.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 34% White 32% Black 15% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Philippines, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 27% Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ramsey

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+43.3) · D 70.5% · R 27.2% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.4pp toward D · 2008: 33.9pp · 2024: 43.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+43.3 2020: D+45.4 2016: D+39.4 2012: D+35.3 2008: D+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -239.48%
• Current HPI: 288.7205
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.26%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+111.1% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-13 Listed $190,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-29 Rental Removed $1,625 APPFOLIO
• 2025-09-08 Price Changed $1,625 APPFOLIO
• 2025-07-24 Listed for Rent $1,699 APPFOLIO
• 2024-07-25 Rental Removed $1,648 APPFOLIO
• 2024-07-18 Listed for Rent $1,648 APPFOLIO
• 2022-11-20 Rental Removed — RENT.
• 2014-09-08 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2014-09-04 Sold (MLS) $75,000 LSAR
• 2014-09-04 Sold (MLS) $75,000 RASM
• 2014-09-04 Sold (MLS) $75,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-08-16 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-08-12 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-07-27 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-07-26 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-07-09 Listed $82,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-07-09 Listed $82,500 LSAR
• 2014-07-09 Listed $82,500 RASM
• 2014-04-24 Price Changed $84,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-04-24 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-04-24 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-04-24 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-03-04 Price Changed $87,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-12-24 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-12-20 Listed $90,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-12-20 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+9.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,708 · +82.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.