2464 Chestnut Woods Dr

Lakeland, FL 33815

$283,900C+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,664 sqft · Built 1981 · MultiFamily · Active · 228 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,836/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,489
• Tax + insurance: −$443
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$596
• Net cashflow: $308/mo
• Annual: $3,700/yr
• Cap rate: 7.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.65%
• DSCR: 1.21
• 1% rule: 1.00%
• Cash to close: $79,492

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $284k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $308 ($4k/yr) — positive. Per door: $154/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $284k (0.1% below list).
• It's been on market 228 days — a 12% lower offer ($250k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $250k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#206 in FL, #3,179 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: R. Bruce Wagner Elementary School (math 54% / reading 42%, grade D, #1,171 of 2,144 statewide, top 55%, 946 students, 46% FRL); Kathleen Senior High School (math 19% / reading 31%, grade F, #501 of 667 statewide, top 75%, 2,051 students, 59% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.1%/yr); 72 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 13 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 6.1% rent growth), your $79k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$49k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $2,836/mo this rent would consume 91% of the median local household income ($37k/yr) (locally 700% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 228 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.