2464 Chestnut Woods Dr · Lakeland, FL 33815

$283,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,664 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 228 Days on market

Built 1981 6,852 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.2/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Great investment opportunity conveniently located in central Lakeland close to I-4. This 2 bedroom, 1 bath duplex features tile floor throughout both units, inside laundry hookup. Centrally located and currently fully occupied with amazing tenants at a competitive rental rate. Don't miss out on this opportunity!

Key facts

• Tile floor
• Central lakeland
• 6,852 sq ft lot

Tags

• CENTRAL LAKELAND
• TILE FLOOR
• INSIDE LAUNDRY HOOKUP
• COMPETITIVE RENTAL RATE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual net income: $28,800; Tenant pays electricity and water; Pro forma rent listed as 2400 for unit type
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Cable available
• Home design: Residential income duplex; Single building (duplex); RB-2 zoning
• Construction: Concrete construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on 0.16-acre lot (approx. 0.16 acres)
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Other exterior features

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms total; Two 2-bedroom units (both occupied)
• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: Units with 1 bathroom each
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room with washer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $284k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $308 ($4k/yr) — positive. Per door: $154/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $284k (0.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $250k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#206 in FL, #3,179 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: R. Bruce Wagner Elementary School (math 54% / reading 42%, grade D, #1,171 of 2,144 statewide, top 55%, 946 students, 46% FRL); Kathleen Senior High School (math 19% / reading 31%, grade F, #501 of 667 statewide, top 75%, 2,051 students, 59% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.1%/yr); 72 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,836/mo this rent would consume 91% of the median local household income ($37k/yr) (locally 700% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 6.1% rent growth), your $79k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$49k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 228 days — a 12% lower offer ($250k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 13 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $249,832 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 228 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.65%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 6.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.31×
• Total profit: $183,521
• Equity at exit: $255,760

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.0%
• Equity multiple: 7.87×
• Total profit: $546,330
• Equity at exit: $551,555

Cash invested: $79,492 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33815

• Home prices YoY: 12.6%
• Rents YoY: 6.1%
• Active inventory: 72
• Price-to-rent: 16.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,836 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,489
• Tax from tax record: −$325 /mo · $3,901/yr
• Insurance: −$118
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$596
• Net cashflow: $308

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,446

Max offer price $283,900

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $469	-5% $389	+0% $308	+5% $228	+10% $148
Rent	-10% $84	-5% $196	+0% $308	+5% $420	+10% $532
Rate	-1.0pp $451	-0.5pp $381	base $308	+0.5pp $235	+1.0pp $160

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$2,836
Total (2 units)			$2,836

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,975
• Closing costs: $8,517
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2117 Ivey Ln Lakeland, FL	3.0	1.0	1160	$1,980	$1.71	24d	1	0.44mi
1806 Dorothy St Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	2046	$1,695	$0.83	4d	1	0.99mi
1335 W Walnut St Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1626	$1,800	$1.11	4d	1	1.19mi
2340 Shasta St Lakeland, FL	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.0	2098	$2,185	$1.04	4d	3	1.20mi
1137 Edith Ave Lakeland, FL	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,800	$1.64	4d	1	1.23mi
1238 Herschell St Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	1323	$1,300	$0.98	24d	1	1.31mi
1246 Dorothy St Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1484	$2,300	$1.55	24d	1	1.41mi
1128 Neville Ave Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1245	$1,900	$1.53	15d	1	1.44mi
3327 Old Tampa Hwy Unit N/A Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1409	$2,290	$1.63	15d	1	1.45mi
3552 Doreen Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1105	$1,730	$1.57	24d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $283,900 Active 228 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $283,900 Active 227 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $283,900 Active 226 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $283,900 Active 225 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $283,900 Active 223 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $283,900 Active 220 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $283,900 Active 219 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $283,900 Active 218 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $283,900 Active 217 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $283,900 Active 214 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $283,900 Active 212 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $283,900 Active 211 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $283,900 Active 210 DOM
14. 2026-02-09
    price $283,900
15. 2025-12-29
    price $284,900
16. 2025-11-02
    listed $287,000 Active
17. 2025-08-13
    historical
18. 2025-08-01
    price $285,000
19. 2025-07-01
    price $287,900
20. 2025-05-09
    listed $290,000 Active
21. 2025-02-06
    historical
22. 2025-01-10
    listed $287,000 Active
23. 2024-10-03
    historical
24. 2024-07-05
    listed $270,000 Active
25. 2024-01-30
    soldstatus $270,000 Closed
26. 2024-01-09
    status Pending
27. 2023-10-10
    status Active
28. 2023-09-15
    status Pending
29. 2023-09-12
    status Active
30. 2023-09-08
    status Pending
31. 2023-09-02
    status Active
32. 2023-08-27
    status Pending
33. 2023-08-18
    listed $254,900 Active
34. 2018-07-30
    soldstatus $318,200
35. 2018-07-29
    soldstatus $63,636 Sold
36. 2018-04-14
    status Pending
37. 2018-03-24
    status Pending
38. 2018-03-22
    status Pending
39. 2017-12-02
    status Pending
40. 2017-12-02
    listed $58,000 Active
41. 2017-07-10
    historical
42. 2017-05-22
    listed $85,000 Active
43. 2014-11-18
    soldstatus $250,000
44. 2014-10-30
    soldstatus $43,875 Sold
45. 2014-07-02
    listed $49,500 Active
46. 2008-11-03
    soldstatus $42,150
47. 2008-08-26
    listed $57,900
48. 2006-07-24
    soldstatus $125,000
49. 2004-10-29
    soldstatus $179,000
50. 2004-06-28
    listed $179,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,901 · $325/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,901 · $325/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,032
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,903
• − Property taxes: −$3,901
• − Insurance: −$1,420
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,723
• − Management: −$2,723
• − Depreciation: −$8,259
• Taxable loss: −$895
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$215
• After-tax cash flow: $3,914/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakeland

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #206
• US rank: #3179

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakeland, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 277,690
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 13,975
• Household income: $37,487
• Rent vs Own: 40.4% rent · 59.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 700.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 10% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% German 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 23% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 47.45%
• Current HPI: 424.0956
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.14%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+536.5% since first listed

38 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $283,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-29 Price Changed $284,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-02 Listed $287,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-13 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-01 Price Changed $285,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-01 Price Changed $287,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-09 Listed $290,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-06 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-10 Listed $287,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-03 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-05 Listed $270,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-30 Sold (MLS) $270,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-09 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-10 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-15 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-12 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-08 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-02 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-27 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-18 Listed $254,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-07-30 Sold (Public Records) $318,200 Public Records
• 2018-07-29 Sold (MLS) $63,636 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-04-14 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-03-24 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-03-22 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-12-02 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-12-02 Listed $58,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-07-10 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-05-22 Listed $85,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-11-18 Sold (Public Records) $250,000 Public Records
• 2014-10-30 Sold (MLS) $43,875 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-07-02 Listed $49,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-11-03 Sold (MLS) $42,150 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-08-26 Listed $57,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-07-24 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 2004-10-29 Sold (MLS) $179,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-06-28 Listed $179,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1992-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $44,600 Public Records

Property tax history

+15.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,901 · +80.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.