2250 Jason Avenue Ave

Van Buren, MO 63965

$159,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Pending · 16 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,095/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax + insurance: −$265
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$230
• Net cashflow: $-234/mo
• Annual: $-2,809/yr
• Cap rate: 4.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.31%
• DSCR: 0.72
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $44,520

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $159k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-234 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $125k (21.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $109k (31.2% below list).
• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($157k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $109k (31.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (9.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#516 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-; Watch: housing C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Van Buren R-I (rural): math 37% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #169 of 324 in MO (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Van Buren Elem. (math 47% / reading 42%, grade F, #413 of 1,115 statewide, top 42%, 291 students, 70% FRL); Van Buren High (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #382 of 521 statewide, top 78%, 225 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: 108 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Carter County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Carter County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 1.8% in Van Buren — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.