2250 Jason Avenue Ave · Van Buren, MO 63965

$159,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · SingleFamily · 16 Days on market

Built 2026 0.36 ac lot Est $174k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.3/15.0
• Appreciation +9.8/10.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks

Dreaming of a New Construction Home in Van Buren, Mo? This floor plan offers a spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath home thoughtfully designed for a starter home or weekend retreat. The open main floor connects the spacious kitchen, making it perfect for gatherings and everyday life. This plan offers a primary suite that includes a private bath and walk-in closet. Don't miss out on this new construction home which is a rarity to find on the open market. Finishes IncludeAll ElectricCentral Heat and AirAll AppliancesVaulted Living Room/Kitchen Ceiling with Wood Car sidingVinyl Plank Flooring throughoutVinyl Single Hung WindowsVinyl Siding Spray Foam InsulationLaminate Countertops * Photos are represen

Key facts

• Private bath
• Walk-in closet
• Spacious kitchen

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION HOME
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• PRIMARY SUITE
• PRIVATE BATH
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• VINYL PLANK FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-234 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $125k (21.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $109k (31.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $109k (31.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 1.9% in Van Buren — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#516 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-; Watch: housing C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Van Buren R-I (rural): math 37% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #169 of 324 in MO (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Van Buren Elem. (math 47% / reading 42%, grade F, #413 of 1,115 statewide, top 42%, 291 students, 70% FRL); Van Buren High (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #382 of 521 statewide, top 78%, 225 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: 108 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Carter County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (9.5% local appreciation)).
• Carter County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($157k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $109,456 (31.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.31%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $173,600
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1807 Payton Place Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,400 (0%)	5mo	$134,900	$96	86
2700 Jason Ave	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,400 (0%)	16mo	$189,900	$136	78
1607 Broadway St	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-7%)	1mo	$289,000	$222	63
1505 Dale St	0.66mi	3/1.5	1,377 (-2%)	4mo	$72,760	$53	62
1410 Broadway	0.68mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,400 (0%)	18mo	$129,900	$93	46
1702 Elm	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,212 (-13%)	10mo	$150,000	$124	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.54% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.50×
• Total profit: $66,700
• Equity at exit: $137,919

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.65×
• Total profit: $206,964
• Equity at exit: $291,941

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63965

• Home prices YoY: 6.2%
• Active inventory: 108
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,095 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$199 /mo · $2,385/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$230
• Net cashflow: $-234

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,391

Max offer price $125,124

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-01-29
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-13
   listed $159,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,135
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$2,385
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,051
• − Management: −$1,051
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable loss: −$5,679
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,363
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,446/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Van Buren R-I
• NCES district ID: 2930750
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $36,880
• Composite: 32.81/100
• National rank: #5624
• State rank: #169 of 324 in MO

Livability — Van Buren

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #516
• US rank: #19632

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing C- Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Van Buren, MO
• Population (ZIP): 2,433

Population outlook (Carter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 6,169 people
• By 2030: 6,050 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 5,824 · -5.6%
• By 2050: 5,583 · -9.5%
• By 2075: 4,900 · -20.6%
• By 2100: 4,002 · -35.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Serbian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Carter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+74.2) · D 12.7% · R 86.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -44.7pp toward R · 2008: -29.5pp · 2024: -74.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+74.2 2020: R+70.2 2016: R+66.4 2012: R+43.7 2008: R+29.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.54%
• Current HPI: 162.5634
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-29 Pending — SOMO
• 2026-01-13 Listed $159,000 SOMO