215 Dawn Dr

Mountain Home, ID 83647

$79,900C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 920 sqft · Built 2024 · Manufactured · Pending · 161 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,714/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax + insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$360
• Net cashflow: $802/mo
• Annual: $9,621/yr
• Cap rate: 18.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 43.01%
• DSCR: 2.91
• 1% rule: 2.15%
• Cash to close: $22,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $802 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
• It's been on market 161 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#26 in ID, #3,741 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Mountain Home District (town): math 28% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #78 of 92 in ID (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mountain Home Sr High School (math 21% / reading 44%, grade F, #117 of 169 statewide, top 70%, 960 students, 33% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.2%/yr); 347 active listings in the ZIP; 129 units permitted in Elmore County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Elmore County population projected at -35% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $7k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.2% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 18.3% vs local median 3.1% in Mountain Home — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 161 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.