3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
790 sqft ·
Built 1958
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 131 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,076/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,049
Tax + insurance
−$274
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$436
Net cashflow
$317/mo
Annual
$3,807/yr
Cap rate
8.20%
Cash-on-cash
6.80%
DSCR
1.30
1% rule
1.04%
Cash to close
$56,000
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $317 ($4k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
It's been on market 131 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
Mantua Township School District (suburban): math 27% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #210 of 472 in NJ (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
Zoned schools: Centre City Elementary School (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #528 of 1,303 statewide, top 43%, 492 students, 17% FRL); Clearview Regional Middle School (math 26% / reading 55%, grade F, #193 of 431 statewide, top 45%, 753 students, 14% FRL); Clearview Regional High School (math 29% / reading 61%, grade D-, #145 of 399 statewide, top 37%, 1,431 students, 10% FRL) — zoned schools at 14% FRL track the district average.
Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 64 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,047 units permitted in Gloucester County in 2024 (183 in 5+ unit buildings).
Gloucester County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
Current owner paid $5k; list at $200k implies a 3900% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 4.3% in Sewell — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 131 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-YST3RD6YE4XV61
· Data 23 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29