3 Circle Dr

Buffalo, WY 82834

$100,000C-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 816 sqft · Built 1978 · SingleFamily · Pending · 58 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $908/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax + insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$191
• Net cashflow: $124/mo
• Annual: $1,482/yr
• Cap rate: 7.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.29%
• DSCR: 1.24
• 1% rule: 0.91%
• Cash to close: $28,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $124 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $91k (9.2% below list).
• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $91k (9.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#55 in WY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Johnson County School District #1 (rural): math 59% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #13 of 41 in WY (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 194 active listings in the ZIP; 8 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Johnson County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $110k (52%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 1.8% in Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.