3 Circle Dr · Buffalo, WY 82834

$100,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 816 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 58 Days on market

Built 1978 0.32 ac lot ↓ 52% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Breathtaking views
• Generator capability
• Serene surroundings

Tags

• BREATHTAKING VIEWS
• SERENE SURROUNDINGS
• COZY LIVING SPACE
• WARM FIREPLACE
• PROPANE HEAT
• GENERATOR CAPABILITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $124 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $91k (9.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $91k (9.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 1.8% in Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#55 in WY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Johnson County School District #1 (rural): math 59% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #13 of 41 in WY (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 194 active listings in the ZIP; 8 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnson County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $110k (52%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $90,819 (9.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.29%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $230,112
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9 Hummingbird Ln	0.22mi	2/1.0	816 (0%)	7mo	$230,000	$282	84

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-8,382
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $2,646
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Wyoming: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+25
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable; small market.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 82834

• Active inventory: 194
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $908 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$28 /mo · $334/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$191
• Net cashflow: $124

Break-even live

Break-even rent $752

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2025-08-08
   status Pending
2. 2025-08-02
   price $100,000
3. 2025-08-02
   price $100,000
4. 2025-07-19
   price $140,000
5. 2025-07-19
   price $140,000
6. 2025-07-18
   price $160,000
7. 2025-07-18
   price $160,000
8. 2025-06-30
   price $180,000
9. 2025-06-30
   price $180,000
10. 2025-06-11
    listed $210,000 Active
11. 2025-05-28
    listed $210,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $334 · $28/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $610 · $51/mo
• Expected delta: +$276/yr (+$23/mo · 82.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥79°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,898
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$334
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$872
• − Management: −$872
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable loss: −$190
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$46
• After-tax cash flow: $1,528/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Johnson County School District #1
• NCES district ID: 5603770
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $52,198
• Composite: 50.47/100
• National rank: #1857
• State rank: #13 of 41 in WY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #55
• US rank: #9876

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,699

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,502 people
• By 2030: 8,345 · -1.8%
• By 2040: 8,092 · -4.8%
• By 2050: 8,025 · -5.6%
• By 2075: 8,463 · -0.5%
• By 2100: 8,935 · +5.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 4% Native American 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.7) · D 17.5% · R 81.1% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.0pp toward R · 2008: -55.7pp · 2024: -63.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.7 2020: R+60.7 2016: R+65.3 2012: R+62.0 2008: R+55.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -169.55%
• Current HPI: 202.1728
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-52.4% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-08 Pending — SBORWY
• 2025-08-02 Price Changed $100,000 NEWRA
• 2025-08-02 Price Changed $100,000 SBORWY
• 2025-07-19 Price Changed $140,000 NEWRA
• 2025-07-19 Price Changed $140,000 SBORWY
• 2025-07-18 Price Changed $160,000 NEWRA
• 2025-07-18 Price Changed $160,000 SBORWY
• 2025-06-30 Price Changed $180,000 SBORWY
• 2025-06-30 Price Changed $180,000 NEWRA
• 2025-06-11 Listed $210,000 SBORWY
• 2025-05-28 Listed $210,000 NEWRA

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $334 · -22.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.