78 Goodwin Rd

Orwell, PA 18837

$235,000D

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,476 sqft · Built 1990 · SingleFamily · Pending · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,412/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax + insurance: −$251
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$297
• Net cashflow: $-368/mo
• Annual: $-4,413/yr
• Cap rate: 4.41%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.71%
• DSCR: 0.70
• 1% rule: 0.60%
• Cash to close: $65,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $235k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-368 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $170k (27.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $141k (39.9% below list).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $141k (39.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (3.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Northeast Bradford SD (rural): math 40% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #235 of 539 in PA (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Northeast Bradford El Sch (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #654 of 1,518 statewide, top 47%, 344 students, 48% FRL); Northeast Bradford Jshs (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #265 of 437 statewide, top 63%, 327 students, 34% FRL).
• Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP; 66 units permitted in Bradford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bradford County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.