78 Goodwin Rd · Orwell, PA 18837

$235,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,476 sqft · SingleFamily · 7 Days on market

Built 1990 1.00 ac lot $95/sqft · 45% below area Est $423k · 45% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• Appreciation +6.8/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to peaceful country living in this charming ranch-style home set on a beautiful 1 -acre lot. This inviting property offers 3 bedrooms and a full bath on the main level, providing easy one-floor living. The basement adds valueable extra space, featuring a half bath, two additional rooms that could serve as bedrooms, home office, or hobby spaces. A cozy wood stove creates the perfect spot to relax during cooler months. Outside, you will find a detached one car garage along with other outbuildings offering plenty of room for storage or workshops. Surrounded by a quiet, rural setting, this property delivers the privacy and charm of country life. Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Privacy
• Quiet rural setting
• One-floor living

Tags

• RANCH-STYLE HOME
• ONE-FLOOR LIVING
• DETACHED GARAGE
• QUIET RURAL SETTING
• PRIVACY

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Private well water
• Home design: Manufactured residential home
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; 1 acre lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 10
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Window air conditioning units; Electric heating; Propane heating; Wood heating
• Interior features: Electric water heater; Walk-out basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-368 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $170k (27.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $141k (39.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $141k (39.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Northeast Bradford SD (rural): math 40% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #235 of 539 in PA (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Northeast Bradford El Sch (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #654 of 1,518 statewide, top 47%, 344 students, 48% FRL); Northeast Bradford Jshs (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #265 of 437 statewide, top 63%, 327 students, 34% FRL).
• Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP; 66 units permitted in Bradford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (3.7% local appreciation)).
• Bradford County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $141,202 (39.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.41%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.71%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 13.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $423,469
• List price: $235,000
• Delta: -44.51%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
103 Harrison Rd	0.72mi	3/2.0	2,372 (-4%)	7mo	$323,500	$136	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.68% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $13,431
• Equity at exit: $114,826

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.07×
• Total profit: $70,235
• Equity at exit: $184,439

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18837

• Home prices YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 5
• Price-to-rent: 13.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,412 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$153 /mo · $1,836/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$297
• Net cashflow: $-368

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,878

Max offer price $170,033

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-235	-5% $-301	+0% $-368	+5% $-434	+10% $-501
Rent	-10% $-479	-5% $-424	+0% $-368	+5% $-312	+10% $-256
Rate	-1.0pp $-249	-0.5pp $-308	base $-368	+0.5pp $-429	+1.0pp $-491

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending 686-char remark
2. 2026-04-25
   listed $235,000 Active 686-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,836 · $153/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,774 · $231/mo
• Expected delta: +$939/yr (+$78/mo · 51.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,944
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$1,836
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,356
• − Management: −$1,356
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$8,778
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,107
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,307/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northeast Bradford SD
• NCES district ID: 4217460
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $46,193
• Composite: 40.29/100
• National rank: #3761
• State rank: #235 of 539 in PA

Livability — Orwell

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,710

Population outlook (Bradford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 57,236 people
• By 2030: 54,660 · -4.5%
• By 2040: 49,502 · -13.5%
• By 2050: 44,277 · -22.6%
• By 2075: 33,420 · -41.6%
• By 2100: 22,919 · -60.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Iranian 2% Polish 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · China
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bradford

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.9) · D 25.6% · R 73.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.5pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -47.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.9 2020: R+44.9 2016: R+46.0 2012: R+24.6 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.68%
• Current HPI: 166.1363
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+8.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Sold (MLS) $255,000 NMPA
• 2026-05-05 Pending — NMPA
• 2026-04-25 Listed $235,000 NMPA

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,836 · +8.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.