135 N Messmer St

Kelso, MO 63780

$95,000C+

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 722 sqft · Built 1890 · Other · Active · 40 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,075/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax + insurance: −$59
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$226
• Net cashflow: $292/mo
• Annual: $3,501/yr
• Cap rate: 9.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.16%
• DSCR: 1.59
• 1% rule: 1.13%
• Cash to close: $26,600

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $95k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $292 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $92k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#331 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Kelso C-7 (rural): math 55% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #34 of 535 in MO (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Kelso Elem. (math 57% / reading 62%, grade B-, #124 of 1,115 statewide, top 13%, 191 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools at 25% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 123 units permitted in Scott County in 2024 (32 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Scott County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.