135 N Messmer St · Kelso, MO 63780

$95,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 722 sqft · Other public records · 40 Days on market

Built 1890

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.9/30.0
• DSCR +9.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Cozy 1 bathroom, 1 bathroom home that is full of character! Built in 1890 - the home features original hardwood floors, new HVAC system, new drywall, fresh paint, new gas lines, remodeled bathroom, a covered back porch, and a large, partially fenced-in backyard. The home sits just a few blocks away from the post office, the park, & amp; St. Augustine Catholic Church.

Key facts

• New drywall
• Fresh paint
• Remodeled bathroom

Tags

• ORIGINAL HARDWOOD FLOORS
• NEW HVAC SYSTEM
• NEW DRYWALL
• FRESH PAINT
• NEW GAS LINES
• REMODELED BATHROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $292 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $92k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#331 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Kelso C-7 (rural): math 55% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #34 of 535 in MO (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 123 units permitted in Scott County in 2024 (32 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Scott County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $92,150 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.16%
• DSCR: 1.59
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $3,142
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.00×
• Total profit: $26,479
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63780

• Active inventory: 19
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,075 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$19 /mo · $234/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$226
• Net cashflow: $292

Break-even live

Break-even rent $705

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $346	-5% $319	+0% $292	+5% $265	+10% $238
Rent	-10% $207	-5% $249	+0% $292	+5% $334	+10% $377
Rate	-1.0pp $340	-0.5pp $316	base $292	+0.5pp $267	+1.0pp $242

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $95,000 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $95,000 Active 39 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,000 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,000 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $95,000 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $95,000 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $95,000 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $95,000 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $95,000 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $95,000 Active 22 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $95,000 Active 21 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,000 Active 20 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 19 DOM
17. 2026-05-12
    listed $95,000 Active
18. 2018-09-04
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $234 · $19/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $922 · $77/mo
• Expected delta: +$688/yr (+$57/mo · 294.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,896
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$234
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,032
• − Management: −$1,032
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $2,039
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$489
• After-tax cash flow: $3,011/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kelso C-7
• NCES district ID: 2916470
• Math proficiency: 55% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▲ 20.00%
• Median HH income: $53,259
• Composite: 52.98/100
• National rank: #3260
• State rank: #34 of 535 in MO

Livability — Kelso

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #331
• US rank: #15186

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kelso, MO
• City population: 411
• Population (ZIP): 6,155

Population outlook (Scott County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 37,964 people
• By 2030: 36,963 · -2.6%
• By 2040: 34,632 · -8.8%
• By 2050: 32,024 · -15.6%
• By 2075: 25,250 · -33.5%
• By 2100: 18,078 · -52.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Scott

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.9) · D 20.2% · R 79.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.5pp toward R · 2008: -29.4pp · 2024: -58.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.9 2020: R+56.5 2016: R+55.6 2012: R+38.2 2008: R+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -90.62%
• Current HPI: 153.643
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $95,000 FSBO.com
• 2018-09-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $234 · +12.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.