1213 Tristram Cir

Oak Valley, NJ 08051

$189,900D-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 742 sqft · Built 1988 · Condo · Pending · 14 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,915/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax + insurance: −$422
• HOA: −$179
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$402
• Net cashflow: $-84/mo
• Annual: $-1,011/yr
• Cap rate: 5.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.90%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 1.01%
• Cash to close: $53,172

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $190k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-84 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $175k (7.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $175k (7.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#276 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Mantua Township School District (suburban): math 27% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #210 of 472 in NJ (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 64 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,047 units permitted in Gloucester County in 2024 (183 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Gloucester County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $98k; list at $190k implies a 94% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.7% in Oak Valley — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.