1213 Tristram Cir · Oak Valley, NJ 08051

$189,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 742 sqft · Condo public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1988 $179/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to the Villages of Berkley! This first floor condo is located in a private setting with a fenced in backyard that backs up beautiful woods. This two-bedroom condo features large windows, inviting a lot of natural light, while the neutral color palette of the walls and flooring give this condo a warm and cozy feel. Along with the eat-in kitchen, this condo offers the convenience of an in-unit washer and dryer. This community offers a maintenance free lifestyle with great amenities such as an outdoor swimming pool, tennis courts and clubhouse.

Key facts

• Wooded views
• Eat-in kitchen
• $179 HOA

Tags

• PRIVATE BACKYARD SETTING
• WOODED VIEWS
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• IN-UNIT WASHER AND DRYER
• APPLIANCES UNDER 5YRS OLD
• OUTDOOR SWIMMING POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly condo fee of $179; HOA covers common area maintenance, exterior building maintenance, lawn maintenance, and snow removal; Community amenities include clubhouse, outdoor pool, and tennis courts

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking space in a parking lot (1 assigned)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Underground utilities; Natural gas for heating and hot water; Electric for cooling
• Home design: Garden-style building (1–4 floors); Unit/flat; 2 total stories; Entry on level 1; Architectural shingle roof; Combination and vinyl siding construction; No tidal water; not in federal flood zone; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Combination and vinyl siding; Architectural shingle roof; Double-hung windows
• Exterior features: Wood fencing; Backs to trees; Corner lot; Community in-ground pool; Clubhouse; Outdoor pool; Tennis courts

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas oven/range; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning (electric); Natural gas hot water
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Gas oven/range; Exhaust fan; Refrigerator; Washer/dryer stacked; Washer/dryer hookup in unit; No basement; Carpet flooring; Ceramic tile flooring; Double-hung windows; Living area per assessor
• Laundry & utility: Stacked washer/dryer included; Washer/dryer hookup in unit

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-84 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $175k (7.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Recommended offer: $175k (7.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.7% in Oak Valley — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#276 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Mantua Township School District (suburban): math 27% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #210 of 472 in NJ (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 64 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,047 units permitted in Gloucester County in 2024 (183 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gloucester County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $98k; list at $190k implies a 94% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,022 (7.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.90%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-35,932
• Equity at exit: $28,315

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-37,369
• Equity at exit: $16,419

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08051

• Home prices YoY: -23.3%
• Active inventory: 64
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,915 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$343 /mo · $4,115/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$179
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$402
• Net cashflow: $-84

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,021

Max offer price $175,022

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $23	-5% $-30	+0% $-84	+5% $-138	+10% $-192
Rent	-10% $-235	-5% $-160	+0% $-84	+5% $-9	+10% $67
Rate	-1.0pp $11	-0.5pp $-36	base $-84	+0.5pp $-133	+1.0pp $-183

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
454 Heather Dr N Mantua Township, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0	798	$2,227	$2.79	0d	6	1.19mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $179 · $2,148/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-05
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-04-21
   listed $189,900 Active
4. 2020-06-23
   soldstatus $98,000
5. 2020-06-15
   soldstatus $98,000 Closed 556-char remark

   Show marketing remark (556 chars)

   Welcome to the Villages of Berkley! This first floor condo is located in a private setting with a fenced in backyard that backs up beautiful woods. This two-bedroom condo features large windows, inviting a lot of natural light, while the neutral color palette of the walls and flooring give this condo a warm and cozy feel. Along with the eat-in kitchen, this condo offers the convenience of an in-unit washer and dryer. This community offers a maintenance free lifestyle with great amenities such as an outdoor swimming pool, tennis courts and clubhouse.

6. 2020-05-20
   status Pending 556-char remark

   Show marketing remark (556 chars)

   Welcome to the Villages of Berkley! This first floor condo is located in a private setting with a fenced in backyard that backs up beautiful woods. This two-bedroom condo features large windows, inviting a lot of natural light, while the neutral color palette of the walls and flooring give this condo a warm and cozy feel. Along with the eat-in kitchen, this condo offers the convenience of an in-unit washer and dryer. This community offers a maintenance free lifestyle with great amenities such as an outdoor swimming pool, tennis courts and clubhouse.

7. 2020-05-05
   historical Active Under Contract 556-char remark

   Show marketing remark (556 chars)

   Welcome to the Villages of Berkley! This first floor condo is located in a private setting with a fenced in backyard that backs up beautiful woods. This two-bedroom condo features large windows, inviting a lot of natural light, while the neutral color palette of the walls and flooring give this condo a warm and cozy feel. Along with the eat-in kitchen, this condo offers the convenience of an in-unit washer and dryer. This community offers a maintenance free lifestyle with great amenities such as an outdoor swimming pool, tennis courts and clubhouse.

8. 2020-04-26
   listed $95,000 Active 556-char remark

   Show marketing remark (556 chars)

   Welcome to the Villages of Berkley! This first floor condo is located in a private setting with a fenced in backyard that backs up beautiful woods. This two-bedroom condo features large windows, inviting a lot of natural light, while the neutral color palette of the walls and flooring give this condo a warm and cozy feel. Along with the eat-in kitchen, this condo offers the convenience of an in-unit washer and dryer. This community offers a maintenance free lifestyle with great amenities such as an outdoor swimming pool, tennis courts and clubhouse.

9. 1996-12-24
   soldstatus $59,990
10. 1995-04-25
    soldstatus $1,900,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,115 · $343/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,422 · $368/mo
• Expected delta: +$307/yr (+$26/mo · 7.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,978
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$4,115
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,838
• − Management: −$1,838
• − HOA: −$2,148
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable loss: −$4,073
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$978
• After-tax cash flow: $-33/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mantua Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3409600
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $81,565
• Composite: 37.41/100
• National rank: #4422
• State rank: #210 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Oak Valley

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #276
• US rank: #8262

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Gloucester County · 160,422 people
• Metro: Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
• Population (ZIP): 12,474
• Household income: $92,071
• Rent vs Own: 20.5% rent · 79.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 155.0

Population outlook (Gloucester County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 298,895 people
• By 2030: 299,031 · +0.0%
• By 2040: 294,020 · -1.6%
• By 2050: 284,188 · -4.9%
• By 2075: 260,720 · -12.8%
• By 2100: 229,565 · -23.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Gloucester

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.6% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.0pp toward R · 2008: 12.2pp · 2024: -2.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.8 2020: D+1.9 2016: R+0.4 2012: D+10.5 2008: D+12.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -90.45%
• Current HPI: 297.7611
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

-90.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-05 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-21 Listed $189,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-06-23 Sold (Public Records) $98,000 Public Records
• 2020-06-15 Sold (MLS) $98,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-05-20 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-05-05 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-04-26 Listed $95,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1996-12-24 Sold (Public Records) $59,990 Public Records
• 1995-04-25 Sold (Public Records) $1,900,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,115 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.