16304 70th Ave N

Maple Grove, MN 55311

$279,900D

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,618 sqft · Built 2002 · Condo · Active · 59 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,291/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax + insurance: −$366
• HOA: −$395
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$481
• Net cashflow: $-418/mo
• Annual: $-5,021/yr
• Cap rate: 4.50%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.41%
• DSCR: 0.71
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $78,372

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $280k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-418 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $206k (26.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $229k (18.1% below list).
• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $206k (26.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#54 in MN, #1,353 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, cost of living D.
• Osseo Public School District (suburban): math 42% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #129 of 301 in MN (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Basswood Elementary (math 76% / reading 71%, grade A, #41 of 857 statewide, top 5%, 865 students, 18% FRL); Maple Grove Middle School (math 45% / reading 58%, grade C, #65 of 258 statewide, top 26%, 1,598 students, 30% FRL); Maple Grove Senior High (math 53% / reading 69%, grade C+, #42 of 471 statewide, top 9%, 2,324 students, 21% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 62% at this address vs 46% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Osseo Public School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.9%/yr); 304 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 4,651 units permitted in Hennepin County in 2024 (2,443 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hennepin County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 7 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 3.4% in Maple Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($154k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.