450 Pole Line #84

Twin Falls, ID 83301

$65,000B

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,670 sqft · Built 1974 · Manufactured · Pending · 65 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,631/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax + insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$650
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$342
• Net cashflow: $189/mo
• Annual: $2,267/yr
• Cap rate: 9.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.46%
• DSCR: 1.55
• 1% rule: 2.51%
• Cash to close: $18,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $65k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $189 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $65k).
• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($61k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $61k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#33 in ID, #4,779 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, commute F.
• Twin Falls District (town): math 34% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #62 of 92 in ID (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Harrison Elementary School (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #272 of 357 statewide, top 80%, 389 students, 65% FRL); Canyon Ridge High School (math 26% / reading 59%, grade F, #71 of 169 statewide, top 42%, 1,409 students, 18% FRL) — zoned schools at 42% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 40% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 620 active listings in the ZIP; 636 units permitted in Twin Falls County in 2024 (12 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Twin Falls County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.9% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 2.4% in Twin Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.