4070 E Jude Ln

Gilbert, AZ 85298

$418,500D

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,308 sqft · Built 2004 · SingleFamily · Active · 135 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,665/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,195
• Tax + insurance: −$306
• HOA: −$225
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$560
• Net cashflow: $-621/mo
• Annual: $-7,452/yr
• Cap rate: 4.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.36%
• DSCR: 0.72
• 1% rule: 0.64%
• Cash to close: $117,180

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $418k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-621 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $309k (26.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $266k (36.3% below list).
• It's been on market 135 days — a 12% lower offer ($368k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $266k (36.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $38k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $35k appreciation (8.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 87/100 on livability (#1 in AZ, #240 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Higley Unified School District (4248) (suburban): math 56% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #21 of 249 in AZ (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Cortina Elementary (math 60% / reading 66%, grade B, #121 of 1,109 statewide, top 11%, 702 students, 10% FRL); Sossaman Middle School (math 59% / reading 60%, grade B, #4 of 218 statewide, top 1%, 1,043 students, 13% FRL); Higley High School (math 49% / reading 47%, grade D, #46 of 381 statewide, top 12%, 2,137 students, 12% FRL) — zoned schools at 12% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 340 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $240k; list at $418k implies a 74% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$61k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 3.2% in Gilbert — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 135 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.