4070 E Jude Ln · Gilbert, AZ
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (shaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 5/10 · Moderate
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $610 – $1,132
Heat risk 9/10 · Severe
- Hot days now (above 111°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 18 days/yr
Wind risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- —
Air-quality risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 1 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 1 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the D grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Appreciation +9.2/10.0
- Cash flow +7.0/30.0
- ARV discount +6.8/15.0
- Schools +5.2/10.0
- Livability +4.4/5.0
- Rent growth +3.6/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- 1% rule +1.4/10.0
- DSCR +1.2/10.0
$418,500
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
Very special ''Verbena'' model home located on a north/south facing lot in the active adult community of ''Trilogy at Power Ranch''. This open floor plan offers a wonderful kitchen that was updated in 2106 with all new stainless appliances, including a Bosch dishwasher,granite breakfast bar and counters and above cabinet lighting. The Great room has an entertainment niche, and the dining area has plantation shutters. There are wood blinds through out the home except the dining area and guest bath. The home features tiled flooring on the diagonal in all traffic areas. Enjoy the master suite with a large bay window overlooking the backyard, walk in closet, carpet,and bath with double sinks,shower,and tiled back-splash. The guest room is located at the opposite side of the home with its own bath giving all parties privacy. The garage has been extended and floor painted along with built in cabinets. Relax on the tiled covered patio in the backyard which has orange and lemon fruit trees. There is also a patio at the front of the home facing south for the person who enjoys sunny days in the winter. You will like all the activities that Trilogy has to offer from golf,tennis,pickle-ball, pools, exercise classes,and so much more.
Key facts
- En suite bathroom
- Double sinks
- Open floor plan
Tags
Property features AI
Finance
- Other: Lot size recorded as 5,250 (source: assessor)
- HOA & community: Association with quarterly fee; Association fee is $675 quarterly; Association covers grounds maintenance and street maintenance; Community amenities include pool, community spa (heated), golf, pickleball courts, tennis courts, biking/walking paths and fitness center; No visible trucks, trailers, RVs, or boats allowed
Exterior
- Parking: 2 open parking spaces; 2 covered parking spaces; 2-car garage with garage door opener, extended length and attached garage cabinets
- Security: Gated community with guarded entry; Security guard on site
- Utilities: City water; Public sewer
- Home design: Single family residence; Fee simple ownership
- Construction: Stucco and painted wood frame construction; Tile roof
- Exterior features: Desert front and back landscaping; Front and back irrigation with auto timers; Private maintained road
Interior
- Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Reverse osmosis water filtration; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal
- Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
- Flooring: Carpet; Tile
- Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
- Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
- Interior features: High-speed internet; Granite counters; Double vanity in bathroom; Breakfast bar; 9+ foot flat ceilings; No interior steps; Kitchen island; Pantry; Master bedroom has a 3/4 bath; Lever handle accessibility
- Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $418k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $-621 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
- To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $309k (26.2% below list).
- To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $266k (36.3% below list).
- Recommended offer: $266k (36.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
- Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 3.2% in Gilbert — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 87/100 on livability (#1 in AZ, #240 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
- Higley Unified School District (4248) (suburban): math 56% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #21 of 249 in AZ (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
- Zoned schools: Cortina Elementary (math 60% / reading 66%, grade B, #121 of 1,109 statewide, top 11%, 702 students, 10% FRL); Sossaman Middle School (math 59% / reading 60%, grade B, #4 of 218 statewide, top 1%, 1,043 students, 13% FRL); Higley High School (math 49% / reading 47%, grade D, #46 of 381 statewide, top 12%, 2,137 students, 12% FRL) — zoned schools at 12% FRL track the district average.
- Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 340 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- In year one you build about $38k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $35k appreciation (8.4% local appreciation)).
- Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
- By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$61k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 135 days — a 12% lower offer ($368k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 3 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
- Current owner paid $240k; list at $418k implies a 74% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Risks & watch-outs
- Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
- It's been on market 135 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
- The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 0.64% ✗
- Cap rate
- 4.51%
- Cash-on-cash
- -6.36%
- DSCR
- 0.72
- GRM
- 13.1
CMA / ARV
- ARV (on-the-fly)
- $412,020
- Comps found
- 12
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4127 E Narrowleaf Dr | 0.30mi | 2/2.0 | 1,436 (+10%) | 2mo | $425,000 | $296 | 64 |
| 4516 E Narrowleaf Dr | 0.60mi | 2/2.0 | 1,308 (0%) | 9mo | $483,000 | $369 | 61 |
| 5127 S Almond Ct | 0.68mi | 2/2.0 | 1,334 (+2%) | 3mo | $420,000 | $315 | 59 |
| 4532 E Indigo St | 0.59mi | 2/2.0 | 1,407 (+8%) | 4mo | $420,000 | $299 | 52 |
| 5101 S Peachwood Dr | 0.58mi | 2/2.0 | 1,412 (+8%) | 9mo | $405,000 | $287 | 49 |
| 5091 S Peachwood Dr | 0.58mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,412 (+8%) | 3mo | $477,500 | $338 | 48 |
| 5028 S Peachwood Dr | 0.61mi | 2/2.0 | 1,407 (+8%) | 9mo | $399,000 | $284 | 48 |
| 4335 E Walnut Rd | 0.54mi | 2/2.0 | 1,437 (+10%) | 9mo | $497,000 | $346 | 47 |
| 4937 S Peach Willow Ln | 0.59mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,407 (+8%) | 8mo | $460,000 | $327 | 45 |
| 5108 S Almond Ct | 0.66mi | 2/2.0 | 1,437 (+10%) | 5mo | $420,000 | $292 | 44 |
| 4624 E Indigo St | 0.71mi | 2/2.0 | 1,437 (+10%) | 4mo | $425,000 | $296 | 44 |
| 4551 E Sycamore Ct | 0.72mi | 2/2.0 | 1,437 (+10%) | 7mo | $510,000 | $355 | 40 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
8.36% appreciation · 4.31% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 16.4%
- Equity multiple
- 2.25×
- Total profit
- $146,110
- Equity at exit
- $328,334
- IRR
- 16.1%
- Equity multiple
- 4.94×
- Total profit
- $461,548
- Equity at exit
- $661,905
Cash invested: $117,180 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Arizona
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 85298
- Home prices YoY
- 2.5%
- Rents YoY
- 4.3%
- Active inventory
- 340
- Price-to-rent
- 13.1×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $2,665 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$2,195
- Tax from tax record
- −$132 /mo · $1,585/yr
- Insurance
- −$174
- HOA
- −$225
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$560
- Net cashflow
- $-621
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $-384 | -5% $-503 | +0% $-621 | +5% $-739 | +10% $-858 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $-831 | -5% $-726 | +0% $-621 | +5% $-516 | +10% $-410 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $-410 | -0.5pp $-515 | base $-621 | +0.5pp $-729 | +1.0pp $-840 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $104,625
- Closing costs
- $12,555
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 12 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4094 E Azalea Dr Gilbert, AZ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1308 | $2,500 | $1.91 | 26d | 1 | 0.14mi |
| 5141 S Eucalyptus Dr Gilbert, AZ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1604 | $3,700 | $2.31 | 0d | 1 | 0.31mi |
| 4269 E Cassia Ln Gilbert, AZ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1407 | $2,495 | $1.77 | 26d | 1 | 0.44mi |
| 3710 E Lodgepole Dr Gilbert, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1818 | $2,650 | $1.46 | 15d | 1 | 0.50mi |
| 3636 E Lodgepole Dr Gilbert, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1818 | $3,075 | $1.69 | 18d | 1 | 0.58mi |
| 4502 E Narrowleaf Dr Gilbert, AZ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1604 | $2,500 | $1.56 | 26d | 1 | 0.60mi |
| 5149 S Moccasin Trl Gilbert, AZ | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1675 | $2,575 | $1.54 | 0d | 1 | 0.70mi |
| 4554 E Strawberry Dr Gilbert, AZ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1407 | $2,500 | $1.78 | 26d | 1 | 0.82mi |
| 4374 S Woodshed Rd Gilbert, AZ | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1724 | $2,249 | $1.30 | 22d | 1 | 1.18mi |
| 6334 S Blake St Gilbert, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1421 | $2,100 | $1.48 | 45d | 1 | 1.40mi |
| 3462 E Powell Way Gilbert, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1665 | $2,295 | $1.38 | 26d | 1 | 1.43mi |
| 3808 E Flower Ct Gilbert, AZ | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1628 | $2,095 | $1.29 | 7d | 1 | 1.46mi |
HOA detail
- Monthly dues
- $225 · $2,700/yr
- Likely covers
- pool
Listing history 26 events
-
2026-06-21days on market $418,500 Active 135 DOM
-
2026-06-18days on market $418,500 Active 132 DOM
-
2026-06-17days on market $418,500 Active 131 DOM
-
2026-06-16days on market $418,500 Active 130 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $418,500 Active 129 DOM
-
2026-06-13pricedays on market $418,500 Active 127 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $425,000 Active 123 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $425,000 Active 122 DOM
-
2026-06-07days on market $425,000 Active 121 DOM
-
2026-06-04days on market $425,000 Active 118 DOM
-
2026-06-03days on market $425,000 Active 117 DOM
-
2026-06-02days on market $425,000 Active 116 DOM
-
2026-06-01days on market $425,000 Active 115 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $425,000 Active 114 DOM
-
2026-04-11price $425,000
-
2026-03-16price $432,500
-
2026-02-06$435,000 Active
-
2016-04-11soldstatus $240,000 Closed 1241-char remark
Show marketing remark (1241 chars)
Very special ''Verbena'' model home located on a north/south facing lot in the active adult community of ''Trilogy at Power Ranch''. This open floor plan offers a wonderful kitchen that was updated in 2106 with all new stainless appliances, including a Bosch dishwasher,granite breakfast bar and counters and above cabinet lighting. The Great room has an entertainment niche, and the dining area has plantation shutters. There are wood blinds through out the home except the dining area and guest bath. The home features tiled flooring on the diagonal in all traffic areas. Enjoy the master suite with a large bay window overlooking the backyard, walk in closet, carpet,and bath with double sinks,shower,and tiled back-splash. The guest room is located at the opposite side of the home with its own bath giving all parties privacy. The garage has been extended and floor painted along with built in cabinets. Relax on the tiled covered patio in the backyard which has orange and lemon fruit trees. There is also a patio at the front of the home facing south for the person who enjoys sunny days in the winter. You will like all the activities that Trilogy has to offer from golf,tennis,pickle-ball, pools, exercise classes,and so much more.
-
2016-04-11soldstatus $240,000
Show marketing remark (1241 chars)
Very special ''Verbena'' model home located on a north/south facing lot in the active adult community of ''Trilogy at Power Ranch''. This open floor plan offers a wonderful kitchen that was updated in 2106 with all new stainless appliances, including a Bosch dishwasher,granite breakfast bar and counters and above cabinet lighting. The Great room has an entertainment niche, and the dining area has plantation shutters. There are wood blinds through out the home except the dining area and guest bath. The home features tiled flooring on the diagonal in all traffic areas. Enjoy the master suite with a large bay window overlooking the backyard, walk in closet, carpet,and bath with double sinks,shower,and tiled back-splash. The guest room is located at the opposite side of the home with its own bath giving all parties privacy. The garage has been extended and floor painted along with built in cabinets. Relax on the tiled covered patio in the backyard which has orange and lemon fruit trees. There is also a patio at the front of the home facing south for the person who enjoys sunny days in the winter. You will like all the activities that Trilogy has to offer from golf,tennis,pickle-ball, pools, exercise classes,and so much more.
-
2016-03-04status Pending 1241-char remark
Show marketing remark (1241 chars)
Very special ''Verbena'' model home located on a north/south facing lot in the active adult community of ''Trilogy at Power Ranch''. This open floor plan offers a wonderful kitchen that was updated in 2106 with all new stainless appliances, including a Bosch dishwasher,granite breakfast bar and counters and above cabinet lighting. The Great room has an entertainment niche, and the dining area has plantation shutters. There are wood blinds through out the home except the dining area and guest bath. The home features tiled flooring on the diagonal in all traffic areas. Enjoy the master suite with a large bay window overlooking the backyard, walk in closet, carpet,and bath with double sinks,shower,and tiled back-splash. The guest room is located at the opposite side of the home with its own bath giving all parties privacy. The garage has been extended and floor painted along with built in cabinets. Relax on the tiled covered patio in the backyard which has orange and lemon fruit trees. There is also a patio at the front of the home facing south for the person who enjoys sunny days in the winter. You will like all the activities that Trilogy has to offer from golf,tennis,pickle-ball, pools, exercise classes,and so much more.
-
2016-02-12$243,000 Active 1241-char remark
Show marketing remark (1241 chars)
Very special ''Verbena'' model home located on a north/south facing lot in the active adult community of ''Trilogy at Power Ranch''. This open floor plan offers a wonderful kitchen that was updated in 2106 with all new stainless appliances, including a Bosch dishwasher,granite breakfast bar and counters and above cabinet lighting. The Great room has an entertainment niche, and the dining area has plantation shutters. There are wood blinds through out the home except the dining area and guest bath. The home features tiled flooring on the diagonal in all traffic areas. Enjoy the master suite with a large bay window overlooking the backyard, walk in closet, carpet,and bath with double sinks,shower,and tiled back-splash. The guest room is located at the opposite side of the home with its own bath giving all parties privacy. The garage has been extended and floor painted along with built in cabinets. Relax on the tiled covered patio in the backyard which has orange and lemon fruit trees. There is also a patio at the front of the home facing south for the person who enjoys sunny days in the winter. You will like all the activities that Trilogy has to offer from golf,tennis,pickle-ball, pools, exercise classes,and so much more.
-
2013-03-20soldstatus $185,000 Closed 338-char remark
Show marketing remark (338 chars)
Sought After Verbena Model In The Premium Active Colf Course Community Of Trilogy. Enjoy All The Activities Community Has To Offer. This Move-in Ready Home Features A Great Room, Large Master Ensuite, Ample Guest Bedroom, Expanded Stamped Concrete Rear Patio, Built-in Natural Gas Line For BBQ, Security System, Epoxy Coated Ganage Floor.
-
2013-03-20soldstatus $185,000
Show marketing remark (338 chars)
Sought After Verbena Model In The Premium Active Colf Course Community Of Trilogy. Enjoy All The Activities Community Has To Offer. This Move-in Ready Home Features A Great Room, Large Master Ensuite, Ample Guest Bedroom, Expanded Stamped Concrete Rear Patio, Built-in Natural Gas Line For BBQ, Security System, Epoxy Coated Ganage Floor.
-
2013-02-22status Pending 338-char remark
Show marketing remark (338 chars)
Sought After Verbena Model In The Premium Active Colf Course Community Of Trilogy. Enjoy All The Activities Community Has To Offer. This Move-in Ready Home Features A Great Room, Large Master Ensuite, Ample Guest Bedroom, Expanded Stamped Concrete Rear Patio, Built-in Natural Gas Line For BBQ, Security System, Epoxy Coated Ganage Floor.
-
2013-02-20$185,000 Active 338-char remark
Show marketing remark (338 chars)
Sought After Verbena Model In The Premium Active Colf Course Community Of Trilogy. Enjoy All The Activities Community Has To Offer. This Move-in Ready Home Features A Great Room, Large Master Ensuite, Ample Guest Bedroom, Expanded Stamped Concrete Rear Patio, Built-in Natural Gas Line For BBQ, Security System, Epoxy Coated Ganage Floor.
-
2004-09-30soldstatus $164,357
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price
- Current annual tax
- $1,585 · $132/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $2,762 · $230/mo
- Expected delta
- +$1,177/yr (+$98/mo · 74.3%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 5/10 Major
- Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 1/10 Low
- Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $31,977
- − Mortgage interest
- −$23,443
- − Property taxes
- −$1,585
- − Insurance
- −$2,092
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$2,558
- − Management
- −$2,558
- − HOA
- −$2,700
- − Depreciation
- −$12,175
- Taxable loss
- −$15,134
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$3,632
- After-tax cash flow
- $-3,819/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Higley Unified School District (4248)
- NCES district ID
- 0403780
- Math proficiency
- 56% ▼ -10.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 58% ▼ -8.00%
- Median HH income
- $82,526
- Composite
- 51.7/100
- National rank
- #1688
- State rank
- #21 of 249 in AZ
Livability — Gilbert
- Score
- 87/100
- State rank
- #1
- US rank
- #240
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Gilbert, AZ
- County
- Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
- City population
- 281,769
- Metro
- Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
- Population (ZIP)
- 44,114
- Household income
- $156,425
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 173.0
Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 4,979,203 people
- By 2030
- 5,378,229 · +8.0%
- By 2040
- 6,156,598 · +23.6%
- By 2050
- 6,872,376 · +38.0%
- By 2075
- 8,401,270 · +68.7%
- By 2100
- 9,247,439 · +85.7%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (72%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Asian 7% Black 2%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 10%
- Common ancestry
- Italian 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
- Foreign-born
- 9% · Canada, China, Vietnam
- Languages at home
- 85% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa
- 2024 margin
- Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
- 2008→2024 swing
- +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▲ 8.36%
- Current HPI
- 343.6932
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 4.31%
- Metro
- Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 4.54%
- F500 in state
- 20
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Technology | 2 | $13B |
|
||
| Mining / Metals | 1 | $23B |
|
||
| Environmental Services | 1 | $16B |
|
||
| Metals / Steel | 1 | $14B |
|
||
| Technology Distribution | 1 | $9B |
|
||
| Homebuilding | 1 | $8B |
|
||
Price history
+158.6% since first listed12 events — show timeline
- 2026-04-11 Price Changed $425,000 ARMLS
- 2026-03-16 Price Changed $432,500 ARMLS
- 2026-02-06 Listed $435,000 ARMLS
- 2016-04-11 Sold (Public Records) $240,000 Public Records
- 2016-04-11 Sold (MLS) $240,000 ARMLS
- 2016-03-04 Pending — ARMLS
- 2016-02-12 Listed $243,000 ARMLS
- 2013-03-20 Sold (Public Records) $185,000 Public Records
- 2013-03-20 Sold (MLS) $185,000 ARMLS
- 2013-02-22 Pending — ARMLS
- 2013-02-20 Listed $185,000 ARMLS
- 2004-09-30 Sold (Public Records) $164,357 Public Records
Property tax history
+0.7%/yrLatest (2025): $1,585 · -6.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…