11221 Nueva Mission Rd

Socorro, TX 79927

$100,000B

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,600 sqft · Built 1988 · SingleFamily · Active · 51 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,931/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax + insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$405
• Net cashflow: $834/mo
• Annual: $10,008/yr
• Cap rate: 16.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.74%
• DSCR: 2.59
• 1% rule: 1.93%
• Cash to close: $28,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $100k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $834 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $97k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $933 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#830 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Socorro ISD (urban): math 23% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #624 of 826 in TX (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.3%/yr); 219 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,196 units permitted in El Paso County in 2024 (143 in 5+ unit buildings).
• El Paso County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-0.9% appreciation + 5.3% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: exterior walls — Peeling paint and structural damage
• Major: roof — Visible damage and potential leaks
• Major: HVAC/mechanicals — No visible systems, but overall condition suggests issues
• Major: landscaping — Overgrown and in poor condition