11221 Nueva Mission Rd · Socorro, TX 79927

$100,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,600 sqft · SingleFamily · 51 Days on market

Built 1988 Poor condition 0.50 ac lot $62/sqft · 57% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Do we have your attention? This exceptional fixer-upper/flip opportunity is packed with potential and room to grow! Situated in a quiet neighborhood just approximately 1 mile from local schools, this property sits on a spacious approximately ~½-acre lot--a rare find. Enjoy a fully fenced yard, NO HOA, and ample space for RV parking, plus plenty of room to build the garage of your dreams. Whether you're an investor or a homeowner with vision, this property offers endless possibilities to add value and make it your own. Opportunities like this don't last long Reach out today!

Key facts

• Spacious lot
• Quiet neighborhood
• Fully fenced yard

Tags

• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD
• SPACIOUS LOT
• FULLY FENCED YARD
• NO HOA
• AMPLE SPACE FOR RV PARKING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $100k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $834 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#830 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Socorro ISD (urban): math 23% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #624 of 826 in TX (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.3%/yr); 219 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,196 units permitted in El Paso County in 2024 (143 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $933 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• El Paso County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-0.9% appreciation + 5.3% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $97,000 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.93% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.74%
• DSCR: 2.59
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $234,156
• List price: $100,000
• Delta: -57.29%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.93% appreciation · 5.29% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.80×
• Total profit: $50,470
• Equity at exit: $24,458

10-year hold

• IRR: 42.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.02×
• Total profit: $140,489
• Equity at exit: $25,955

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79927

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Rents YoY: 5.3%
• Active inventory: 219
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,931 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$125 /mo · $1,500/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$405
• Net cashflow: $834

Break-even live

Break-even rent $875

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 52%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
228 Flor Azucena Dr Socorro, TX	3.0	2.0	1767	$1,695	$0.96	2d	1	0.93mi
11500 Summer Dr Unit B Socorro, TX	4.0	2.0	1594	$1,700	$1.07	2d	1	0.95mi
629 David Ortiz St El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1447	$1,750	$1.21	2d	1	1.14mi
11673 Flor Celosia Dr El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1128	$1,450	$1.29	23d	1	1.21mi
11571 Leonor Duran St El Paso, TX	4.0	2.5	2142	$2,100	$0.98	3d	1	1.33mi
629 Guy Meyers St El Paso, TX	4.0	3.0	1913	$2,000	$1.05	11d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-10
   days on market $100,000 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $100,000 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $100,000 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $100,000 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $100,000 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $100,000 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $100,000 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $100,000 Active 42 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $100,000 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-05-01
    status Active 593-char remark

    Show marketing remark (593 chars)

    Do we have your attention? This exceptional fixer-upper/flip opportunity is packed with potential and room to grow! Situated in a quiet neighborhood just approximately 1 mile from local schools, this property sits on a spacious approximately ~½-acre lot--a rare find. Enjoy a fully fenced yard, NO HOA, and ample space for RV parking, plus plenty of room to build the garage of your dreams. Whether you're an investor or a homeowner with vision, this property offers endless possibilities to add value and make it your own. Opportunities like this don't last long Reach out today!

11. 2026-01-19
    status Pending 593-char remark

    Show marketing remark (593 chars)

    Do we have your attention? This exceptional fixer-upper/flip opportunity is packed with potential and room to grow! Situated in a quiet neighborhood just approximately 1 mile from local schools, this property sits on a spacious approximately ~½-acre lot--a rare find. Enjoy a fully fenced yard, NO HOA, and ample space for RV parking, plus plenty of room to build the garage of your dreams. Whether you're an investor or a homeowner with vision, this property offers endless possibilities to add value and make it your own. Opportunities like this don't last long Reach out today!

12. 2026-01-08
    listed $100,000 Active 593-char remark

    Show marketing remark (593 chars)

    Do we have your attention? This exceptional fixer-upper/flip opportunity is packed with potential and room to grow! Situated in a quiet neighborhood just approximately 1 mile from local schools, this property sits on a spacious approximately ~½-acre lot--a rare find. Enjoy a fully fenced yard, NO HOA, and ample space for RV parking, plus plenty of room to build the garage of your dreams. Whether you're an investor or a homeowner with vision, this property offers endless possibilities to add value and make it your own. Opportunities like this don't last long Reach out today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,166
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$1,500
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,853
• − Management: −$1,853
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $8,949
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,148
• After-tax cash flow: $7,861/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property is in poor condition with extensive repairs and maintenance needed. It presents a significant opportunity for an investor to improve the home's condition and increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior walls — Peeling paint and structural damage
• Major roof — Visible damage and potential leaks
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — No visible systems, but overall condition suggests issues
• Major landscaping — Overgrown and in poor condition

Value-add opportunities

• Resale exterior paint job — Fresh paint can improve the home's curb appeal and overall appearance.
• Both landscaping — A well-maintained yard can improve both resale and rental value.
• Both HVAC and mechanicals — Upgrading HVAC and mechanicals can improve comfort and energy efficiency, increasing both resale and rental value.
• Both roof repair — A repaired roof can prevent leaks and other water damage, increasing both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior walls · Peeling paint and structural damage	Major	$15,000–50,000
roof · Visible damage and potential leaks	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · No visible systems, but overall condition suggests issues	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · Overgrown and in poor condition	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$60,000–200,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale exterior paint job — Fresh paint can improve the home's curb appeal and overall appearance. ↑
• Both landscaping — A well-maintained yard can improve both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both HVAC and mechanicals — Upgrading HVAC and mechanicals can improve comfort and energy efficiency, increasing both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both roof repair — A repaired roof can prevent leaks and other water damage, increasing both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Socorro ISD
• NCES district ID: 4840710
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -34.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $49,318
• Composite: 25.67/100
• National rank: #7396
• State rank: #624 of 826 in TX

Livability — Socorro

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #830
• US rank: #14960

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Socorro, TX
• County: El Paso County · 761,266 people
• City population: 44,444
• Metro: El Paso, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,444
• Household income: $53,652
• Rent vs Own: 19.2% rent · 80.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 732.0

Population outlook (El Paso County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 897,899 people
• By 2030: 922,694 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 960,492 · +7.0%
• By 2050: 982,919 · +9.5%
• By 2075: 997,266 · +11.1%
• By 2100: 900,630 · +0.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 97% Two or more races 39% Native American 2% White 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 94%
• Foreign-born: 34% · Canada
• Languages at home: 16% English-only · Spanish 84%

Political lean MEDSL · El Paso

• 2024 margin: D (+15.1) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.4pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 15.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.1 2020: D+35.1 2016: D+43.2 2012: D+32.6 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.93%
• Current HPI: 239.646
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.29%
• Metro: El Paso, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Relisted — GEPARMLS
• 2026-01-19 Pending — GEPARMLS
• 2026-01-08 Listed $100,000 GEPARMLS