31600 Troy Rd

Newberry Springs, CA 92365

$65,000A-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Built 1971 · Manufactured · Active · 353 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,712/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax + insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$360
• Net cashflow: $931/mo
• Annual: $11,173/yr
• Cap rate: 23.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 61.39%
• DSCR: 3.73
• 1% rule: 2.63%
• Cash to close: $18,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $65k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $931 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $65k).
• It's been on market 353 days — a 12% lower offer ($57k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $57k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($449 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade A — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Silver Valley Unified (town): math 23% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #323 of 517 in CA (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 209 active listings in the ZIP; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 10 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $23k (26%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 353 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.