31600 Troy Rd · Newberry Springs, CA 92365

$65,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Manufactured public records · 353 Days on market

Built 1971 30 ac lot $58/sqft · 22% below area Est $84k · 22% under ↓ 31% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Your slice of paradise is ready and waiting with panoramic, unobstructed views. Experience off-grid living in a 3-bedroom, 1-bathroom mobile home on a spacious 30-acre lot. Utilities are available.

Key facts

• Off-grid living
• Panoramic views
• Spacious lot

Tags

• PANORAMIC VIEWS
• UNOBSTRUCTED VIEWS
• OFF-GRID LIVING
• SPACIOUS LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $931 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $57k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade A — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Silver Valley Unified (town): math 23% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #323 of 517 in CA (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 209 active listings in the ZIP; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($449 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 353 days — a 12% lower offer ($57k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $23k (26%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $57,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 353 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.63% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 61.39%
• DSCR: 3.73
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $83,743
• List price: $65,000
• Delta: -22.38%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 66.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.69×
• Total profit: $67,141
• Equity at exit: $29,227

10-year hold

• IRR: 65.7%
• Equity multiple: 9.57×
• Total profit: $155,928
• Equity at exit: $45,042

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92365

• Active inventory: 209
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,712 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax from tax record: −$54 /mo · $644/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$360
• Net cashflow: $931

Break-even live

Break-even rent $534

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 41%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $65,000 Active 353 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $65,000 Active 352 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,900 Active 351 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,900 Active 350 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,900 Active 348 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,900 Active 347 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,900 Active 344 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,900 Active 343 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $79,900 Active 342 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $79,900 Active 339 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $79,900 Active 338 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,900 Active 337 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,900 Active 336 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,900 Active 335 DOM
15. 2025-11-11
    price $79,900 197-char remark

    Show marketing remark (197 chars)

    Your slice of paradise is ready and waiting with panoramic, unobstructed views. Experience off-grid living in a 3-bedroom, 1-bathroom mobile home on a spacious 30-acre lot. Utilities are available.

16. 2025-06-30
    listed $88,000 Active 197-char remark

    Show marketing remark (197 chars)

    Your slice of paradise is ready and waiting with panoramic, unobstructed views. Experience off-grid living in a 3-bedroom, 1-bathroom mobile home on a spacious 30-acre lot. Utilities are available.

17. 2025-05-17
    historical
18. 2025-05-17
    historical
19. 2025-02-19
    price $99,000
20. 2024-07-08
    price $134,900
21. 2024-05-20
    listed $149,900 Active
22. 2024-05-20
    listed $149,900 Active
23. 2024-05-13
    historical
24. 2023-11-03
    status Active
25. 2023-11-03
    historical
26. 2023-11-01
    historical
27. 2023-11-01
    historical
28. 2023-10-18
    price $168,000
29. 2023-10-10
    price $188,000
30. 2023-09-01
    price $212,000
31. 2023-08-11
    price $229,000
32. 2023-08-11
    listed $229,000 Active
33. 2023-08-11
    historical
34. 2023-07-12
    price $259,000
35. 2023-06-14
    listed $299,000 Active
36. 2023-06-14
    historical
37. 2023-04-06
    price $299,000
38. 2023-03-24
    price $339,000
39. 2023-03-04
    price $349,000
40. 2023-02-21
    price $359,000
41. 2023-02-03
    price $379,000
42. 2023-01-03
    status Active
43. 2023-01-03
    listed $399,000
44. 2023-01-03
    historical
45. 2020-04-08
    soldstatus $62,000
46. 2009-02-10
    historical
47. 2008-08-29
    soldstatus $140,000
48. 2008-01-13
    historical
49. 2007-08-13
    listed $349,000
50. 2006-10-03
    listed $495,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $644 · $54/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $644 · $54/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 14 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,547
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$644
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,644
• − Management: −$1,644
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $10,759
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,582
• After-tax cash flow: $8,591/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Silver Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0636820
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $48,754
• Composite: 26.85/100
• National rank: #7105
• State rank: #323 of 517 in CA

Livability — Newberry Springs

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,514

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 20% Asian 8% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Dominican 7%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 8% Vietnamese 2% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-30.5% since first listed

38 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-11 Price Changed $79,900 CRMLS
• 2025-06-30 Listed $88,000 CRMLS
• 2025-05-17 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-05-17 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-02-19 Price Changed $99,000 CRMLS
• 2024-07-08 Price Changed $134,900 CRMLS
• 2024-05-20 Listed $149,900 CRMLS
• 2024-05-20 Listed $149,900 CRMLS
• 2024-05-13 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2023-11-03 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2023-11-03 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2023-11-01 Coming Soon — CRMLS
• 2023-11-01 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2023-10-18 Price Changed $168,000 CRMLS
• 2023-10-10 Price Changed $188,000 CRMLS
• 2023-09-01 Price Changed $212,000 CRMLS
• 2023-08-11 Price Changed $229,000 CRMLS
• 2023-08-11 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2023-08-11 Listed $229,000 CRMLS
• 2023-07-12 Price Changed $259,000 CRMLS
• 2023-06-14 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2023-06-14 Listed $299,000 CRMLS
• 2023-04-06 Price Changed $299,000 CRMLS
• 2023-03-24 Price Changed $339,000 CRMLS
• 2023-03-04 Price Changed $349,000 CRMLS
• 2023-02-21 Price Changed $359,000 CRMLS
• 2023-02-03 Price Changed $379,000 CRMLS
• 2023-01-03 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2023-01-03 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2023-01-03 Listed $399,000 CRMLS
• 2020-04-08 Sold (Public Records) $62,000 Public Records
• 2009-02-10 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2008-08-29 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records
• 2008-01-13 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2007-08-13 Listed $349,000 CRMLS
• 2006-10-03 Listed $495,000 CRMLS
• 2005-09-02 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records
• 2005-09-02 Sold (MLS) $115,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

-4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $644 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.