16 W 16th St Unit 5NS

New York, NY 10011

$639,000C+

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 575 sqft · Built 1964 · Condo · Active · 69 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $7,753/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,351
• Tax + insurance: −$1,065
• HOA: −$1,143
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,628
• Net cashflow: $566/mo
• Annual: $6,791/yr
• Cap rate: 7.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.80%
• DSCR: 1.17
• 1% rule: 1.21%
• Cash to close: $178,920

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $639k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $566 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($8k rent vs $639k).
• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($601k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $601k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $39k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $34k appreciation (5.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.1%/yr); 461 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 4,467 units permitted in New York County in 2024 (4,463 in 5+ unit buildings).
• New York County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (5.3% appreciation + 7.1% rent growth), your $179k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$62k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $7,753/mo this rent would consume 64% of the median local household income ($146k/yr) (locally 3446% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?