16 W 16th St Unit 5NS · New York, NY 10011

$639,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 575 sqft · Condo · 69 Days on market

Built 1964 $1143/mo HOA · 15% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.1/30.0
• Appreciation +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Situated just off Fifth Avenue and down the street from Union Square, this Junior 1 bedroom with a low maintenance is located in The Chelsea Lane, a premier full service coop. Converted from an alcove studio, the apartment has a sliding door allowing for a separate bedroom while still allowing for an open feel. The well-proportioned home features an entry area/living room measuring approximately 31 feet long. The spacious living room has a perfect spot for a dining table, 3 large closets a generous sized galley kitchen and newly refinished wood floors. In addition, the bathroom has a window, not commonly found in the building. Amenities in The Chelsea Lane include a 24 hour doorman, liv

Key facts

• Junior 1 bedroom
• Sliding door
• Spacious living room

Tags

• JUNIOR 1 BEDROOM
• SLIDING DOOR
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• GENEROUS SIZED GALLEY KITCHEN
• NEWLY REFINISHED WOOD FLOORS
• BATHROOM WITH A WINDOW

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets allowed in building (building allows pets; individual unit restrictions may apply)
• Financial info: Not a multi-family investment (building has 489 total units)
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $1,143; Building amenities include bike storage, elevator(s), and storage

Exterior

• Parking: Parking details not provided
• Security: Not specified
• Utilities: Cooling via wall units
• Home design: Located on entry level 5; 14-story building; Building name: Chelsea Lane
• Construction: Construction details not provided
• Exterior features: Building courtyard; North exposure

Interior

• Kitchen: Appliances not specified
• Bedrooms: Details not provided
• Flooring: Not specified
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Wall unit cooling
• Interior features: Has basement; basement type listed as Other; Total of 3 rooms
• Laundry & utility: Building laundry (other)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $639k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $566 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($8k rent vs $639k).
• Recommended offer: $601k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.1%/yr); 461 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 4,467 units permitted in New York County in 2024 (4,463 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $7,753/mo this rent would consume 64% of the median local household income ($146k/yr) (locally 3446% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $39k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $34k appreciation (5.3% local appreciation)).
• New York County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (5.3% appreciation + 7.1% rent growth), your $179k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$62k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($601k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $600,660 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.80%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.34% appreciation · 7.06% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.28×
• Total profit: $229,736
• Equity at exit: $375,549

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.11×
• Total profit: $735,498
• Equity at exit: $659,537

Cash invested: $178,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City New York: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+34

Rent Stabilization Code; HSTPA; 6+ months in housing court.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10011

• Home prices YoY: 2.6%
• Rents YoY: 7.1%
• Active inventory: 461
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,753 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,351
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$799 /mo · $9,585/yr
• Insurance: −$266
• HOA: −$1,143
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,628
• Net cashflow: $566

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,037

Max offer price $639,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $159,750
• Closing costs: $19,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
101 W 15th St New York, NY	1.0	1.0	562	$9,550	$16.98	2d	2	0.13mi
108 W 15th St #205 New York, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	697	$6,050	$8.67	3d	2	0.16mi
130 W 15th St #1383 New York, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	844	$9,200	$10.90	2d	2	0.19mi
120 W 21st St New York, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	676	$7,070	$10.46	4d	14	0.27mi
180 W 20th St #1202 New York, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	791	$9,505	$12.01	2d	3	0.31mi
1 Union Sq S #1174 New York, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	775	$10,120	$13.06	10d	3	0.34mi
815 Broadway #204 New York, NY	1.0	1.0	522	$8,250	$15.80	7d	1	0.37mi
160 W 24th St New York, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	731	$7,896	$10.79	1d	12	0.46mi
177 Waverly Pl Unit 1075286P New York, NY	1.0	1.0	452	$10,000	$22.12	24d	1	0.46mi
776 6th Ave New York, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	756	$7,743	$10.24	1d	18	0.47mi
364 6th Ave Unit 1023432P New York, NY	1.0	1.0	441	$9,135	$20.71	22d	1	0.49mi
290 W 12th St #1592 New York, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	515	$7,110	$13.81	7d	2	0.54mi
43 W 27th St #1055 New York, NY	2.0	1.0	740	$9,940	$13.43	24d	1	0.54mi
290 3rd Ave #279 New York, NY	1.0	1.0	607	$9,740	$16.03	3d	2	0.54mi
101 E 10th St #1153 New York, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	575	$6,740	$11.72	2d	2	0.57mi
87 Perry St New York, NY	2.0	2.0	748	$18,500	$24.73	24d	1	0.59mi
112 E 10th St Unit 1021937P New York, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1296	$5,772	$4.45	3d	2	0.61mi
250 E 21st St Unit 8D New York, NY	1.0	1.0	688	$9,525	$13.84	2d	1	0.63mi
535 Hudson St #1032 New York, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	550	$6,030	$10.96	7d	2	0.69mi
104 MacDougal St Unit 1056263P New York, NY	2.0	1.0	441	$9,375	$21.26	22d	1	0.69mi
120 Christopher St #1886 New York, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	574	$5,680	$9.89	2d	3	0.70mi
52 Barrow St #2123 New York, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	547	$6,420	$11.73	10d	3	0.70mi
244 W 29th St Unit 2149 New York, NY	1.0	1.0	490	$9,720	$19.84	6d	2	0.71mi
346 E 18th St Unit 1254596P New York, NY	2.0	2.0	699	$12,979	$18.57	22d	1	0.72mi
243 W 28th St #2143 New York, NY	1.0	1.0	580	$8,960	$15.45	18d	1	0.72mi
309 5th Ave New York, NY	1.0	1.0	597	$7,596	$12.72	7d	13	0.75mi
209 1st Ave Unit 1370708P New York, NY	1.0	1.0	602	$12,000	$19.93	24d	1	0.76mi
10 Downing St #131 New York, NY	1.0	1.0	731	$9,050	$12.38	4d	2	0.76mi
139 Christopher St Unit 1021914P New York, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	667	$5,340	$8.01	7d	2	0.77mi
140 Charles St Unit 14A New York, NY	1.0	1.0	648	$8,000	$12.35	7d	1	0.78mi
155 E 31st St #2190 New York, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	725	$5,610	$7.74	7d	2	0.86mi
93 1/2 E 7th St Unit 1054297P New York, NY	2.0	1.0	495	$10,000	$20.20	22d	1	0.89mi
282 11th Ave New York, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	960	$7,858	$8.18	1d	1	0.89mi
141 E 33rd St #1278 New York, NY	2.0	1.0–1.5	683	$6,230	$9.12	7d	3	0.91mi
535 W 23rd St #1584 New York, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	625	$8,330	$13.33	3d	3	0.93mi
11 E 1st St New York, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	1060	$8,078	$7.62	1d	1	0.95mi
30 Park Ave #1347 New York, NY	2.0	1.0	950	$7,890	$8.31	2d	3	0.99mi
435 W 31st St New York, NY	1.0	1.0	633	$13,963	$22.04	6d	27	1.01mi
229 Chrystie St New York, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	810	$6,120	$7.56	4d	3	1.02mi
222 E 34th St #999 New York, NY	1.0	1.0	554	$5,490	$9.91	6d	1	1.02mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $1,143 · $13,716/yr
• Likely covers: doorman
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-25
   price $639,000
2. 2026-03-18
   listed $665,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $93,036
• − Mortgage interest: −$35,794
• − Property taxes: −$9,585
• − Insurance: −$3,195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,443
• − Management: −$7,443
• − HOA: −$13,716
• − Depreciation: −$18,589
• Taxable loss: −$2,728
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$655
• After-tax cash flow: $7,446/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — New York

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #4188

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing C+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New York, NY
• County: New York County · 1,599,927 people
• City population: 7,731,280
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 48,277
• Household income: $145,987
• Rent vs Own: 64.1% rent · 35.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 3446.0

Population outlook (New York County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,825,725 people
• By 2030: 1,904,611 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 2,052,719 · +12.4%
• By 2050: 2,206,601 · +20.9%
• By 2075: 2,509,427 · +37.4%
• By 2100: 2,702,933 · +48.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 13% Asian 10% Two or more races 9% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Scotch-Irish 5% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · New York

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.8) · D 82.4% · R 17.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: 72.2pp · 2024: 64.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.8 2020: D+74.5 2016: D+77.2 2012: D+69.6 2008: D+72.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.34%
• Current HPI: 208.6913
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.06%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-3.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $639,000 RLS at REBNY
• 2026-03-18 Listed $665,000 RLS at REBNY