4495 County Road 405

Alton, MO 65606

$1C-

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 6,910 sqft · Built 1950 · SingleFamily · Pending · 230 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,345/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$0
• Tax + insurance: −$0
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$283
• Net cashflow: $1,063/mo
• Annual: $12,754/yr
• Cap rate: 1275370.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 4554873.38%
• DSCR: 202667.23
• 1% rule: 134533.00%
• Cash to close: $0

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $1.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $1).
• It's been on market 230 days — a 12% lower offer ($0) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#441 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute D, schools F, crime F.
• Alton R-IV (rural): math 18% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #283 of 324 in MO (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 61 active listings in the ZIP; 5 units permitted in Oregon County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Oregon County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $3.50M (100%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (4.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $0 cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 1275370.8% vs local median 4.2% in Alton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 230 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 5% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.