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4495 County Road 405 🔨 Auction
C- Composite 50.07
Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • Cash flow +15.0/30.0
  • ARV discount +7.5/15.0
  • Appreciation +7.3/10.0
  • 1% rule +5.0/10.0
  • DSCR +5.0/10.0
  • Livability +3.1/5.0
  • Rent growth +2.5/5.0
  • Condition / age +2.5/5.0
  • Schools +2.2/10.0

$1

4495 County Road 405 · Alton, MO 65606
4 bd · 3.5 ba · 6,910 sqft · SingleFamily · 230 Days on market
Built 1950 661 ac lot ↓ 22% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

RESERVE AUCTION - ONLINE BIDDING OPENS June 1 @ 8AM and will conclude with Live Auction on Friday July 24. Seller reserves the right to accept any online bid or offers on any tracts or combinations up until the live auction date which may result in a cancelled live auction. So, be sure to place your bids and possibly secure your tract now before it’s too late. Wild & Scenic Eleven Point Ranch...A premier working cattle and horse ranch on a protected Ozark Mountain Scenic Riverway. A rare property that doesn't come along very often. This 661 acres is a rare gem deep in the Mark Twain National Forest, providing serene privacy and seclusion and is being offered at RESERVE AUCTION in Four Tracts. Tract #1 consists of 67+/- acres of pasture & timber. Tract #2 consists of 38+/- acres of pasture. Both tracts 1&2 are located outside of the riverway easement. Tract #3 the main attraction consists of a 297+/- acre grandfathered riverway ranch property. Central to the ranch is a stone-built executive style home perched on the hillside overlooking the river valley and offering breathtaking views. The property features ample pasture and well-equipped facilities for a cattle operation or horse property, complemented by fertile river-bottom fields ideal for hay production. In addition, there is a ranch-hand homestead and a cabin on-site. Although both in need of renovation, they are grandfathered structures allowing them to be remodeled or re-built. Tract#4 on the south side of the river consists of approximately 259+/- mostly timbered acres with some pasture area and direct riverfront access. While all of this acreage is located within the riverway easement, the Seller is offering a Buyer of this tract the option to acquire up to 10 additional adjacent acres outside of the riverway easement allowing for unrestricted development to build a cabin or other structures. All of these tracts provide an ultimate outdoorsman’s paradise featuring excellent whitetail and turkey hunting, water activities such as fishing, kayaking, tubing, and many trails to explore for that land recreation enthusiast. Each boasting a combination of mature timber and plentiful pasture areas for livestock. Overall, this ranch is loaded with springs that feed the river. Fishing opportunities include a number of species, predominately smallmouth and trout, which are natural to the habitat.

Key facts

  • Executive-style home
  • Private cave
  • 661.1 acre lot

Tags

WORKING CATTLE AND HORSE RANCHPRIVATE CAVEFENCED AND CROSS-FENCEDUNDERGROUND WATERING SYSTEMROTATIONAL GRAZING OPERATIONEXECUTIVE-STYLE HOME

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 3.0 mi
Loading POIs…
🔨 Auction listing. The $1 list price is a nominal opening bid, not a real ask — every metric below is computed on the estimated value $1 (ARV from comps), not the list price.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $1.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
  • The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
  • Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $1).
  • Cap rate 1275370.8% vs local median 4.2% in Alton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads 61/100 on livability (#441 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute D, schools F, crime F.
  • Alton R-IV (rural): math 18% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #283 of 324 in MO (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
  • Market conditions: 59 active listings in the ZIP; 5 units permitted in Oregon County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

  • Oregon County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
  • At projected returns (4.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $0 cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 230 days — a 12% lower offer ($0) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
  • 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $3.50M (100%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

  • Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Recommended offer $1

Questions for the listing agent

  1. It's been on market 230 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 5% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
  2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
  3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
  4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
  6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
  7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
134533.00%
Cap rate
1275370.84%
Cash-on-cash
4554873.38%
DSCR
202667.23
GRM
0.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.62% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
Equity multiple
241826.16×
Total profit
$67,711
Equity at exit
$1
10-year hold
IRR
Equity multiple
522168.48×
Total profit
$146,207
Equity at exit
$1

Cash invested: $0 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Missouri
81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

ZIP-level market 65606

Home prices YoY
3.4%
Active inventory
59

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$1,345 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
$0
Tax est. 1.5%
$0 /mo · $0/yr
Insurance
$0
HOA
$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
$283
Net cashflow
$1,063

Break-even live

Break-even rent
Max offer price $1
Occupancy floor 16%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$0
Closing costs
$0
Reserves months
Total cash needed

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Down + closing
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Down + closing
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Down + closing
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Listing history 20 events

  1. 2026-06-18
    days on market $1 Active 230 DOM
  2. 2026-06-17
    days on market $1 Active 229 DOM
  3. 2026-06-16
    days on market $1 Active 228 DOM
  4. 2026-06-15
    days on market $1 Active 227 DOM
  5. 2026-06-13
    days on market $1 Active 225 DOM
  6. 2026-06-12
    days on market $1 Active 224 DOM
  7. 2026-06-09
    days on market $1 Active 221 DOM
  8. 2026-06-08
    days on market $1 Active 220 DOM
  9. 2026-06-07
    days on market $1 Active 219 DOM
  10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $1 Active 218 DOM
  11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $1 Active 215 DOM
  12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1 Active 214 DOM
  13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1 Active 213 DOM
  14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1 Active 212 DOM
  15. 2026-05-15
    price $1 2423-char remark
    Show marketing remark (2423 chars)

    RESERVE AUCTION - ONLINE BIDDING OPENS June 1 @ 8AM and will conclude with Live Auction on Friday July 24. Seller reserves the right to accept any online bid or offers on any tracts or combinations up until the live auction date which may result in a cancelled live auction. So, be sure to place your bids and possibly secure your tract now before it’s too late. Wild & Scenic Eleven Point Ranch...A premier working cattle and horse ranch on a protected Ozark Mountain Scenic Riverway. A rare property that doesn't come along very often. This 661 acres is a rare gem deep in the Mark Twain National Forest, providing serene privacy and seclusion and is being offered at RESERVE AUCTION in Four Tracts. Tract #1 consists of 67+/- acres of pasture & timber. Tract #2 consists of 38+/- acres of pasture. Both tracts 1&2 are located outside of the riverway easement. Tract #3 the main attraction consists of a 297+/- acre grandfathered riverway ranch property. Central to the ranch is a stone-built executive style home perched on the hillside overlooking the river valley and offering breathtaking views. The property features ample pasture and well-equipped facilities for a cattle operation or horse property, complemented by fertile river-bottom fields ideal for hay production. In addition, there is a ranch-hand homestead and a cabin on-site. Although both in need of renovation, they are grandfathered structures allowing them to be remodeled or re-built. Tract#4 on the south side of the river consists of approximately 259+/- mostly timbered acres with some pasture area and direct riverfront access. While all of this acreage is located within the riverway easement, the Seller is offering a Buyer of this tract the option to acquire up to 10 additional adjacent acres outside of the riverway easement allowing for unrestricted development to build a cabin or other structures. All of these tracts provide an ultimate outdoorsman’s paradise featuring excellent whitetail and turkey hunting, water activities such as fishing, kayaking, tubing, and many trails to explore for that land recreation enthusiast. Each boasting a combination of mature timber and plentiful pasture areas for livestock. Overall, this ranch is loaded with springs that feed the river. Fishing opportunities include a number of species, predominately smallmouth and trout, which are natural to the habitat.

  16. 2025-11-03
    listed $3,500,000 Active
  17. 2025-11-01
    listed $4,500,000 Active 2423-char remark
    Show marketing remark (2423 chars)

    RESERVE AUCTION - ONLINE BIDDING OPENS June 1 @ 8AM and will conclude with Live Auction on Friday July 24. Seller reserves the right to accept any online bid or offers on any tracts or combinations up until the live auction date which may result in a cancelled live auction. So, be sure to place your bids and possibly secure your tract now before it’s too late. Wild & Scenic Eleven Point Ranch...A premier working cattle and horse ranch on a protected Ozark Mountain Scenic Riverway. A rare property that doesn't come along very often. This 661 acres is a rare gem deep in the Mark Twain National Forest, providing serene privacy and seclusion and is being offered at RESERVE AUCTION in Four Tracts. Tract #1 consists of 67+/- acres of pasture & timber. Tract #2 consists of 38+/- acres of pasture. Both tracts 1&2 are located outside of the riverway easement. Tract #3 the main attraction consists of a 297+/- acre grandfathered riverway ranch property. Central to the ranch is a stone-built executive style home perched on the hillside overlooking the river valley and offering breathtaking views. The property features ample pasture and well-equipped facilities for a cattle operation or horse property, complemented by fertile river-bottom fields ideal for hay production. In addition, there is a ranch-hand homestead and a cabin on-site. Although both in need of renovation, they are grandfathered structures allowing them to be remodeled or re-built. Tract#4 on the south side of the river consists of approximately 259+/- mostly timbered acres with some pasture area and direct riverfront access. While all of this acreage is located within the riverway easement, the Seller is offering a Buyer of this tract the option to acquire up to 10 additional adjacent acres outside of the riverway easement allowing for unrestricted development to build a cabin or other structures. All of these tracts provide an ultimate outdoorsman’s paradise featuring excellent whitetail and turkey hunting, water activities such as fishing, kayaking, tubing, and many trails to explore for that land recreation enthusiast. Each boasting a combination of mature timber and plentiful pasture areas for livestock. Overall, this ranch is loaded with springs that feed the river. Fishing opportunities include a number of species, predominately smallmouth and trout, which are natural to the habitat.

  18. 2025-11-01
    historical $4,500,000 2423-char remark
    Show marketing remark (2423 chars)

    RESERVE AUCTION - ONLINE BIDDING OPENS June 1 @ 8AM and will conclude with Live Auction on Friday July 24. Seller reserves the right to accept any online bid or offers on any tracts or combinations up until the live auction date which may result in a cancelled live auction. So, be sure to place your bids and possibly secure your tract now before it’s too late. Wild & Scenic Eleven Point Ranch...A premier working cattle and horse ranch on a protected Ozark Mountain Scenic Riverway. A rare property that doesn't come along very often. This 661 acres is a rare gem deep in the Mark Twain National Forest, providing serene privacy and seclusion and is being offered at RESERVE AUCTION in Four Tracts. Tract #1 consists of 67+/- acres of pasture & timber. Tract #2 consists of 38+/- acres of pasture. Both tracts 1&2 are located outside of the riverway easement. Tract #3 the main attraction consists of a 297+/- acre grandfathered riverway ranch property. Central to the ranch is a stone-built executive style home perched on the hillside overlooking the river valley and offering breathtaking views. The property features ample pasture and well-equipped facilities for a cattle operation or horse property, complemented by fertile river-bottom fields ideal for hay production. In addition, there is a ranch-hand homestead and a cabin on-site. Although both in need of renovation, they are grandfathered structures allowing them to be remodeled or re-built. Tract#4 on the south side of the river consists of approximately 259+/- mostly timbered acres with some pasture area and direct riverfront access. While all of this acreage is located within the riverway easement, the Seller is offering a Buyer of this tract the option to acquire up to 10 additional adjacent acres outside of the riverway easement allowing for unrestricted development to build a cabin or other structures. All of these tracts provide an ultimate outdoorsman’s paradise featuring excellent whitetail and turkey hunting, water activities such as fishing, kayaking, tubing, and many trails to explore for that land recreation enthusiast. Each boasting a combination of mature timber and plentiful pasture areas for livestock. Overall, this ranch is loaded with springs that feed the river. Fishing opportunities include a number of species, predominately smallmouth and trout, which are natural to the habitat.

  19. 2024-06-01
    historical
  20. 2023-10-24
    listed $4,500,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$16,144
− Mortgage interest
−$0
− Property taxes
−$0
− Insurance
−$0
− Repairs & maintenance
−$1,292
− Management
−$1,292
− Depreciation
−$0
Taxable income
$13,561
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
−$3,255
After-tax cash flow
$9,499/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

District
Alton R-IV
NCES district ID
2903060
Math proficiency
18% ▼ -6.00%
Reading proficiency
37% ▲ 2.00%
Median HH income
$29,501
Composite
22.1/100
National rank
#8179
State rank
#283 of 324 in MO

Livability — Alton

Score
61/100
State rank
#441
US rank
#18027

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Population (ZIP)
2,540

Population outlook (Oregon County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
10,607 people
By 2030
10,352 · -2.4%
By 2040
9,829 · -7.3%
By 2050
9,286 · -12.5%
By 2075
8,392 · -20.9%
By 2100
7,136 · -32.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Predominantly White (94%)
Race & ethnicity
White 94% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
Common ancestry
Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
Foreign-born
1% · Vietnam
Languages at home
97% English-only · Arabic 2% Spanish 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oregon

2024 margin
Solid R (+69.1) · D 15.1% · R 84.2%
2008→2024 swing
-50.8pp toward R · 2008: -18.3pp · 2024: -69.1pp
All cycles
2024: R+69.1 2020: R+63.8 2016: R+60.1 2012: R+33.2 2008: R+18.3

Not yet ingested

Civics

Market trends

HPI YoY
▲ 4.62%
Current HPI
142.0523
Rent YoY
Metro
State GDP YoY
▲ 1.84%
F500 in state
20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry F500 HQs Revenue

Price history

-22.2% since first listed
6 events — show timeline
  • 2026-05-15 Price Changed $1 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2025-11-03 Listed $3,500,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2025-11-01 Listed $4,500,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2025-11-01 Coming Soon $4,500,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2024-06-01 Delisted MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2023-10-24 Listed $4,500,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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