945 Valleywood Trl

Holly Lake Ranch, TX 75765

$199,000D-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,224 sqft · Built 2000 · SingleFamily · Active · 164 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,681/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax + insurance: −$300
• HOA: −$182
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$353
• Net cashflow: $-198/mo
• Annual: $-2,375/yr
• Cap rate: 5.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.26%
• DSCR: 0.81
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $55,720

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-198 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $164k (17.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $168k (15.5% below list).
• It's been on market 164 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $164k (17.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#597 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Hawkins ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #339 of 826 in TX (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 216 active listings in the ZIP; 72 units permitted in Wood County in 2024 (29 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wood County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 44% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.8% in Holly Lake Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 164 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.