945 Valleywood Trl · Holly Lake Ranch, TX 75765

$199,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,224 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 164 Days on market

Built 2000 $163/sqft · at area comps Est $199k · at est. $182/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.5/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2 Bed/2 Bath/2car-port/1224 SF cottage in the peaceful woods of Section 6 in Holly Lake Ranch. This home has been well maintained and highlights include walk-in closets in both bedrooms, both bedrooms oversized with sitting areas, a 14x12 screened porch that can easily be converted to an additional living area and a mammoth 60x10 deck across the front. PLUS 2 storage sheds and a greenhouse. Holly Lake Ranch is a gated community with many amenities including 24x7 security, golf course, tennis & pickleball courts, dog parks, 2 lakes for fishing/boating, 2 dog parks, on-site restaurant and more.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Walk-in closets
• 60x10 deck

Tags

• WALK-IN CLOSETS
• SCREENED PORCH
• 60X10 DECK
• STORAGE SHEDS
• GREENHOUSE
• GATED COMMUNITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-198 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $164k (17.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $168k (15.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $164k (17.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.8% in Holly Lake Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#597 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Hawkins ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #339 of 826 in TX (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 216 active listings in the ZIP; 72 units permitted in Wood County in 2024 (29 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.1% local appreciation)).
• Wood County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 164 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 44% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $164,042 (17.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 164 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.26%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $198,864
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: 0.07%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
192 Drifting Cloud	0.39mi	2/2.0	1,250 (+2%)	14mo	$225,000	$180	63
121 Candlelight Cv	0.42mi	2/2.0	1,106 (-10%)	2mo	$176,900	$160	58
177 Woodfern Gln	0.63mi	2/2.0	1,106 (-10%)	8mo	$182,000	$165	44
1796 Valleywood Trl	0.65mi	2/3.0	1,238 (+1%)	23mo	$219,500	$177	41
135 Woodfern Gln	0.61mi	2/2.0	1,340 (+10%)	18mo	$304,000	$227	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.1% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $12,504
• Equity at exit: $90,562

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.10×
• Total profit: $61,112
• Equity at exit: $140,414

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75765

• Home prices YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 216
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,681 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$217 /mo · $2,606/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$182
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$353
• Net cashflow: $-198

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,931

Max offer price $164,042

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $182 · $2,184/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $199,000 Active 164 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 163 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 162 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 161 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 160 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,000 Active 158 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 157 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,000 Active 155 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 154 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $199,000 Active 153 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,000 Active 152 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $199,000 Active 149 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,000 Active 148 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,000 Active 147 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 146 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 145 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $199,000 Active 144 DOM
18. 2026-01-06
    listed $199,000 Active 605-char remark

    Show marketing remark (605 chars)

    2 Bed/2 Bath/2car-port/1224 SF cottage in the peaceful woods of Section 6 in Holly Lake Ranch. This home has been well maintained and highlights include walk-in closets in both bedrooms, both bedrooms oversized with sitting areas, a 14x12 screened porch that can easily be converted to an additional living area and a mammoth 60x10 deck across the front. PLUS 2 storage sheds and a greenhouse. Holly Lake Ranch is a gated community with many amenities including 24x7 security, golf course, tennis & pickleball courts, dog parks, 2 lakes for fishing/boating, 2 dog parks, on-site restaurant and more.

19. 2000-12-07
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,606 · $217/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,642 · $303/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,036/yr (+$86/mo · 39.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 44% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,168
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$2,606
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,613
• − Management: −$1,613
• − HOA: −$2,184
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$5,780
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,387
• After-tax cash flow: $-988/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hawkins ISD
• NCES district ID: 4822770
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $43,119
• Composite: 35.91/100
• National rank: #4809
• State rank: #339 of 826 in TX

Livability — Holly Lake Ranch

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #597
• US rank: #11377

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Holly Lake Ranch, TX
• Population (ZIP): 8,195

Population outlook (Wood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,480 people
• By 2030: 47,796 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 50,142 · +7.9%
• By 2050: 52,122 · +12.1%
• By 2075: 57,033 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 56,418 · +21.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Wood

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+69.7) · D 14.8% · R 84.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.5pp toward R · 2008: -54.2pp · 2024: -69.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+69.7 2020: R+68.2 2016: R+70.0 2012: R+64.2 2008: R+54.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.10%
• Current HPI: 236.7688
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-06 Listed $199,000 GTAR
• 2000-12-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,606 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.