54 5th St

Lake Ronkonkoma, NY 11779

$649,000D-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,562 sqft · Built 1955 · SingleFamily · Pending · 19 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,462/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,403
• Tax + insurance: −$841
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$937
• Net cashflow: $-720/mo
• Annual: $-8,640/yr
• Cap rate: 4.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.75%
• DSCR: 0.79
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $181,720

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $649k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-720 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $522k (19.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $446k (31.2% below list).
• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($639k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $446k (31.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $19k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#169 in NY, #2,606 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: amenities D-, cost of living F.
• Sachem Central School District (suburban): math 69% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #86 of 590 in NY (top 15%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Hiawatha School (math 57% / reading 57%, grade C+, #842 of 2,108 statewide, top 43%, 603 students, 36% FRL); Sagamore Middle School (math 44% / reading 57%, grade C, #259 of 729 statewide, top 36%, 933 students, 30% FRL); Sachem High School North (math 96% / reading 95%, grade A+, #76 of 1,100 statewide, top 7%, 1,923 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools average 30% FRL vs 15% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 174 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 5 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 3% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $339k; list at $649k implies a 92% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 73% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 4.0% in Lake Ronkonkoma — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• At $4,462/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($112k/yr) (locally 874% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.