54 5th St · Lake Ronkonkoma, NY 11779

$649,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,562 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1955 3,920 sqft lot $415/sqft · 16% above area Est $714k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.6/15.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• Schools +6.6/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Fully Renovated Colonial. New Kitchen, Bathrooms, flooring and paint. Pvc fencing and rear trez decking. Right off the LIE close to airport and shopping centers. This will not last!

Key facts

• Close to airport
• New kitchen
• Rear trez decking

Tags

• NEW KITCHEN
• NEW BATHROOMS
• PVC FENCING
• REAR TREZ DECKING
• CLOSE TO AIRPORT
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING CENTERS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Cesspool sewer; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Approximately 2000 living area (source: other)
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Frame construction; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances; Granite counters
• Bedrooms: Includes a first-floor bedroom
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; Cathedral ceilings; Eat-in kitchen; ENERGY STAR qualified doors; Formal dining area; Granite countertops; Open floorplan with open kitchen; Recessed lighting; Walk-through kitchen; Washer/dryer hookup; Bilco door(s) to basement; Full attic
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $649k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-720 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $522k (19.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $446k (31.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $446k (31.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 4.0% in Lake Ronkonkoma — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#169 in NY, #2,606 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: amenities D-, cost of living F.
• Sachem Central School District (suburban): math 69% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #86 of 590 in NY (top 15%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Hiawatha School (math 57% / reading 57%, grade C+, #842 of 2,108 statewide, top 43%, 603 students, 36% FRL); Sagamore Middle School (math 44% / reading 57%, grade C, #259 of 729 statewide, top 36%, 933 students, 30% FRL); Sachem High School North (math 96% / reading 95%, grade A+, #76 of 1,100 statewide, top 7%, 1,923 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools average 30% FRL vs 15% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 174 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,462/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($112k/yr) (locally 874% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $19k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($639k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 3% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $339k; list at $649k implies a 92% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 73% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $446,189 (31.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.75%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $713,533
• List price: $649,000
• Delta: -9.04%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
97 Lake Promenade	0.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,508 (-4%)	11mo	$600,000	$398	71
36 Lakewood Ave	0.47mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,536 (-2%)	1mo	$630,000	$410	65
37 Weichers Ave	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,666 (+7%)	3mo	$695,000	$417	60
2530 Locust Ave	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (-10%)	10mo	$617,000	$441	57
12 Bay Ave	0.40mi	4/2.0	1,728 (+11%)	9mo	$610,000	$353	56
16 Birch Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (-2%)	4mo	$580,000	$378	56
2362 Ocean Ave	0.57mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (+2%)	12mo	$647,000	$404	55
2761 Locust Ave	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (-10%)	11mo	$615,000	$439	52
14 Emily Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,604 (+3%)	12mo	$620,000	$387	50
834 Peconic St	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,514 (-3%)	8mo	$687,000	$454	49
415 Fir Grove Rd	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,675 (+7%)	9mo	$605,000	$361	44
426 Ontario St	0.74mi	4/2.0	1,706 (+9%)	10mo	$754,000	$442	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.79% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-160,809
• Equity at exit: $96,768

10-year hold

• IRR: -33.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.31×
• Total profit: $-237,509
• Equity at exit: $56,114

Cash invested: $181,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11779

• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 174
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,462 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,403
• Tax from tax record: −$571 /mo · $6,852/yr
• Insurance: −$270
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$937
• Net cashflow: $-720

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,373

Max offer price $521,816

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-353	-5% $-536	+0% $-720	+5% $-904	+10% $-1,087
Rent	-10% $-1,072	-5% $-896	+0% $-720	+5% $-544	+10% $-367
Rate	-1.0pp $-393	-0.5pp $-555	base $-720	+0.5pp $-888	+1.0pp $-1,059

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $162,250
• Closing costs: $19,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
100 Lake Rd Ronkonkoma, NY	3.0	2.5	1800	$4,500	$2.50	45d	1	0.21mi
2 Hawkins Ave Lake Ronkonkoma, NY	3.0	1.0–2.0	959	$5,009	$5.22	0d	130	0.51mi
16 Birch Dr Ronkonkoma, NY	3.0	2.0	1536	$4,250	$2.77	25d	1	0.72mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-05-01
   listed $629,000 Active 181-char remark
2. 2026-04-27
   historical
3. 2026-03-21
   price $639,000
4. 2026-03-19
   price $669,000
5. 2026-03-19
   status Active
6. 2026-02-13
   status Pending
7. 2026-02-13
   price $699,000
8. 2026-01-20
   price $639,000
9. 2026-01-08
   listed $669,000 Active
10. 2026-01-08
    historical
11. 2025-12-14
    listed $669,000 Active
12. 2025-08-24
    historical
13. 2025-08-18
    listed $529,000 Active
14. 2008-06-18
    soldstatus $338,870
15. 1991-11-27
    soldstatus $104,000
16. 1987-03-12
    soldstatus $79,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,852 · $571/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,910 · $743/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,058/yr (+$171/mo · 30.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 73% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $53,543
• − Mortgage interest: −$36,354
• − Property taxes: −$6,852
• − Insurance: −$3,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,283
• − Management: −$4,283
• − Depreciation: −$18,880
• Taxable loss: −$20,355
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,885
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,754/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sachem Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3625350
• Math proficiency: 69% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 76% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $92,968
• Composite: 65.53/100
• National rank: #472
• State rank: #86 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lake Ronkonkoma

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #2606

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute B- Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Ronkonkoma, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 38,273
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 38,206
• Household income: $112,180
• Rent vs Own: 24.3% rent · 75.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 874.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 9% Asian 7% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 7% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Scotch-Irish 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 7% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -569.98%
• Current HPI: 350.0973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.79%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+721.5% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $649,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Listed $629,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-27 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-21 Price Changed $639,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $669,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-19 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-13 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $699,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-20 Price Changed $639,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-08 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-08 Listed $669,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-14 Listed $669,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-24 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-18 Listed $529,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-06-18 Sold (Public Records) $338,870 Public Records
• 1991-11-27 Sold (Public Records) $104,000 Public Records
• 1987-03-12 Sold (Public Records) $79,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,852 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.