3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,311 sqft ·
Built 2021
· Other
· Under Contract
· 66 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,246/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,914
Tax + insurance
−$437
HOA
−$123
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$472
Net cashflow
$-700/mo
Annual
$-8,398/yr
Cap rate
4.49%
Cash-on-cash
-6.43%
DSCR
0.71
1% rule
0.62%
Cash to close
$102,200
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $365k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-700 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $241k (33.9% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (38.5% below list).
It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($343k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $225k (38.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $39k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $36k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 70/100 on livability (#93 in UT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
Alpine District (suburban): math 45% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #25 of 80 in UT (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
Zoned schools: Dry Creek School (math 60% / reading 60%, grade B-, #52 of 585 statewide, top 10%, 1,127 students, 13% FRL); Willowcreek Middle (math 50% / reading 47%, grade C-, #35 of 138 statewide, top 26%, 1,746 students, 13% FRL); Lehi High (math 36% / reading 47%, grade F, #57 of 171 statewide, top 34%, 1,982 students, 12% FRL).
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $152/mo.
Market conditions: Rents flat; 1175 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,326 units permitted in Utah County in 2024 (1,053 in 5+ unit buildings).
Utah County population projected at +49% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $60k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$63k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AH (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
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· Data 1 week agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29