1207 Napier Ave

St. Joseph, MI 49085

$265,000C

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,828 sqft · Built 1948 · SingleFamily · Pending · 20 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,807/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax + insurance: −$456
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$590
• Net cashflow: $372/mo
• Annual: $4,460/yr
• Cap rate: 7.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.01%
• DSCR: 1.27
• 1% rule: 1.06%
• Cash to close: $74,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $265k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $372 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $265k).
• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($261k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $261k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Joseph Public Schools (suburban): math 53% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #47 of 540 in MI (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Lincoln School (math 42% / reading 62%, grade C-, #328 of 1,397 statewide, top 26%, 421 students, 34% FRL); Upton Middle School (math 56% / reading 65%, grade B+, #51 of 493 statewide, top 11%, 665 students, 30% FRL); St Joseph High School (math 52% / reading 69%, grade C+, #70 of 713 statewide, top 10%, 988 students, 26% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 228 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 397 units permitted in Berrien County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Berrien County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 12 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $199k; 33% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 3.0% in St. Joseph — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($105k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.