1207 Napier Ave · St. Joseph, MI 49085

$265,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,828 sqft · SingleFamily · 20 Days on market

Built 1948 10,454 sqft lot $145/sqft · 10% below area Est $296k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.2/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming, clean, and move-in ready! Close to all that St. Joseph has to offer - downtown, beaches, shopping, and the hospital. Don't miss this opportunity to own a four-bedroom, two-bath home in the St. Joseph School District. Very private backyard with storage shed/garage and screened-in porch. Eat-in kitchen, large living room with amazing natural light, as well as a spacious living/recreation area in the basement. Two-car detached garage and concrete driveway are also featured on this updated home. This is a Fannie Mae HomePath Property.

Key facts

• Screened in porch
• Private backyard
• Spacious living area

Tags

• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• STORAGE SHED
• SCREENED IN PORCH
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• NATURAL LIGHT
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREA

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Built in 1948; Aluminum siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Sidewalk; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (10 x 18)
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (13 x 13); Bedroom 2 (13 x 13); Bedroom 3 (12 x 12); Bedroom 4 (11 x 12)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Has cooling
• Interior features: Garage door opener; Pantry; Screens; Insulated windows; Full basement; Five total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room (13 x 15)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $372 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $265k).
• Recommended offer: $261k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 3.0% in St. Joseph — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Joseph Public Schools (suburban): math 53% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #47 of 540 in MI (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Lincoln School (math 42% / reading 62%, grade C-, #328 of 1,397 statewide, top 26%, 421 students, 34% FRL); Upton Middle School (math 56% / reading 65%, grade B+, #51 of 493 statewide, top 11%, 665 students, 30% FRL); St Joseph High School (math 52% / reading 69%, grade C+, #70 of 713 statewide, top 10%, 988 students, 26% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 228 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 397 units permitted in Berrien County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($105k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Berrien County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($261k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 12 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $199k; 33% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $261,025 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.01%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $295,927
• List price: $265,000
• Delta: -10.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2311 Bryan St	0.12mi	4/2.0	1,853 (+1%)	2mo	$360,000	$194	90
911 Napier Ave	0.17mi	4/2.0	1,896 (+4%)	5mo	$242,237	$128	82
2817 Willa Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,859 (+2%)	8mo	$290,000	$156	62
1518 Forres Ave	0.75mi	4/2.0	1,847 (+1%)	3mo	$494,000	$267	61
1209 Mohawk Ln	0.37mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,000 (+9%)	3mo	$374,900	$187	59
523 Howard Ave	0.74mi	4/3.0	1,862 (+2%)	7mo	$425,000	$228	52
828 Wolcott Ave	0.60mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,722 (-6%)	7mo	$310,000	$180	50
2800 Thayer Dr	0.43mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,610 (-12%)	8mo	$294,500	$183	46
1311 Wolcott Ave	0.56mi	4/2.0	1,553 (-15%)	5mo	$250,000	$161	45
2620 Botham Ct	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,576 (-14%)	1mo	$265,000	$168	43
513 N Ottawa Rd	0.63mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,070 (+13%)	7mo	$197,500	$95	36
1295 Pontiac Rd	0.71mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,587 (-13%)	3mo	$250,000	$158	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-27,445
• Equity at exit: $39,512

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-25,003
• Equity at exit: $22,912

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49085

• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 228
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,807 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax from tax record: −$346 /mo · $4,153/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$590
• Net cashflow: $372

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,337

Max offer price $265,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $522	-5% $447	+0% $372	+5% $297	+10% $222
Rent	-10% $150	-5% $261	+0% $372	+5% $483	+10% $593
Rate	-1.0pp $505	-0.5pp $439	base $372	+0.5pp $303	+1.0pp $233

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1319 Lewis Ave Saint Joseph, MI	4.0	3.0	2280	$2,970	$1.30	45d	1	0.48mi
916 Broad St St Joseph, MI	3.0	1.5	1900	$2,650	$1.39	45d	1	1.08mi
187 Wayne St #13 Saint Joseph, MI	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,900	$1.93	45d	1	1.18mi

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-01
   statusdays on market $265,000 Pending 20 DOM

   Show marketing remark (546 chars)

   Charming, clean, and move-in ready! Close to all that St. Joseph has to offer - downtown, beaches, shopping, and the hospital. Don't miss this opportunity to own a four-bedroom, two-bath home in the St. Joseph School District. Very private backyard with storage shed/garage and screened-in porch. Eat-in kitchen, large living room with amazing natural light, as well as a spacious living/recreation area in the basement. Two-car detached garage and concrete driveway are also featured on this updated home. This is a Fannie Mae HomePath Property.

2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $265,000 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-05-30
   days on market $265,000 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-05-11
   listed $265,000 Active 548-char remark

   Show marketing remark (546 chars)

   Charming, clean, and move-in ready! Close to all that St. Joseph has to offer - downtown, beaches, shopping, and the hospital. Don't miss this opportunity to own a four-bedroom, two-bath home in the St. Joseph School District. Very private backyard with storage shed/garage and screened-in porch. Eat-in kitchen, large living room with amazing natural light, as well as a spacious living/recreation area in the basement. Two-car detached garage and concrete driveway are also featured on this updated home. This is a Fannie Mae HomePath Property.

5. 2026-05-11
   listed $265,000 Active 546-char remark

   Show marketing remark (546 chars)

   Charming, clean, and move-in ready! Close to all that St. Joseph has to offer - downtown, beaches, shopping, and the hospital. Don't miss this opportunity to own a four-bedroom, two-bath home in the St. Joseph School District. Very private backyard with storage shed/garage and screened-in porch. Eat-in kitchen, large living room with amazing natural light, as well as a spacious living/recreation area in the basement. Two-car detached garage and concrete driveway are also featured on this updated home. This is a Fannie Mae HomePath Property.

6. 2026-05-11
   listed $265,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (546 chars)

   Charming, clean, and move-in ready! Close to all that St. Joseph has to offer - downtown, beaches, shopping, and the hospital. Don't miss this opportunity to own a four-bedroom, two-bath home in the St. Joseph School District. Very private backyard with storage shed/garage and screened-in porch. Eat-in kitchen, large living room with amazing natural light, as well as a spacious living/recreation area in the basement. Two-car detached garage and concrete driveway are also featured on this updated home. This is a Fannie Mae HomePath Property.

7. 2021-05-17
   soldstatus $199,000
8. 2021-05-07
   soldstatus $199,000 Sold
9. 2021-05-07
   soldstatus $199,000 Sold
10. 2021-05-06
    status Pending
11. 2021-05-06
    status Pending
12. 2021-03-10
    historical Contingent - Continue To Show
13. 2021-03-10
    historical Active Backup
14. 2021-03-02
    listed $199,000 Active
15. 2021-03-02
    listed $199,000 Active
16. 2021-03-02
    listed $199,000
17. 2018-06-05
    soldstatus $172,000
18. 2018-06-01
    soldstatus $172,000
19. 2018-06-01
    soldstatus $172,000 Sold
20. 2018-05-24
    status Pending
21. 2018-04-23
    historical Active Backup
22. 2018-04-09
    status Active
23. 2018-03-30
    historical Active Backup
24. 2018-03-06
    listed $169,000 Active
25. 2018-03-03
    listed $169,000
26. 2018-03-03
    listed $169,000
27. 2004-06-04
    soldstatus $109,900
28. 2004-06-04
    soldstatus $109,900
29. 2004-03-01
    listed $109,900
30. 2004-03-01
    listed $109,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,153 · $346/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,153 · $346/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,689
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$4,153
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,695
• − Management: −$2,695
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable income: $268
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$64
• After-tax cash flow: $4,396/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Joseph Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2632850
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $61,232
• Composite: 50.87/100
• National rank: #1795
• State rank: #47 of 540 in MI

Livability — St. Joseph

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Joseph, MI
• County: Berrien County · 71,477 people
• Metro: Niles, MI
• Population (ZIP): 23,827
• Household income: $104,969
• Rent vs Own: 23.7% rent · 76.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 277.0

Population outlook (Berrien County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 149,273 people
• By 2030: 145,211 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 135,435 · -9.3%
• By 2050: 125,543 · -15.9%
• By 2075: 103,986 · -30.3%
• By 2100: 82,256 · -44.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 6% Asian 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Iranian 4% Italian 4%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Other Indo-European 5% Spanish 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Berrien

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+7.9) · D 45.4% · R 53.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.3pp toward R · 2008: 5.5pp · 2024: -7.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+7.9 2020: R+7.4 2016: R+12.7 2012: R+6.6 2008: D+5.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -332.72%
• Current HPI: 207.2281
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.24%
• Metro: Niles, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+141.1% since first listed

30 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-06-01 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-06-01 Pending — SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $265,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $265,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $265,000 REALCOMP
• 2021-05-17 Sold (Public Records) $199,000 Public Records
• 2021-05-07 Sold (MLS) $199,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2021-05-07 Sold (MLS) $199,000 REALCOMP
• 2021-05-06 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2021-05-06 Pending — SW Michigan MLS
• 2021-03-10 Contingent — REALCOMP
• 2021-03-10 Contingent — SW Michigan MLS
• 2021-03-02 Listed $199,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-03-02 Listed $199,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2021-03-02 Listed $199,000 REALCOMP
• 2018-06-05 Sold (Public Records) $172,000 Public Records
• 2018-06-01 Sold (MLS) $172,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2018-06-01 Sold (MLS) $172,000 REALCOMP
• 2018-05-24 Pending — SW Michigan MLS
• 2018-04-23 Contingent — SW Michigan MLS
• 2018-04-09 Relisted — SW Michigan MLS
• 2018-03-30 Contingent — SW Michigan MLS
• 2018-03-06 Listed $169,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2018-03-03 Listed $169,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2018-03-03 Listed $169,000 REALCOMP
• 2004-06-04 Sold (MLS) $109,900 REALCOMP
• 2004-06-04 Sold (MLS) $109,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2004-03-01 Listed $109,900 REALCOMP
• 2004-03-01 Listed $109,900 SW Michigan MLS

Property tax history

+13.6%/yr

Latest (2024): $4,153 · -11.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.