415 W 12th St

Coleman, TX 76834

$29,000B+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 879 sqft · Built 1930 · SingleFamily · Pending · 36 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $834/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$152
• Tax + insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$175
• Net cashflow: $392/mo
• Annual: $4,700/yr
• Cap rate: 22.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 57.89%
• DSCR: 3.58
• 1% rule: 2.88%
• Cash to close: $8,120

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $29k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $392 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($834 rent vs $29k).
• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($28k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $28k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($200 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (5.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#454 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Coleman ISD (town): math 42% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #439 of 826 in TX (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Coleman El (math 32% / reading 27%, grade F, #2,525 of 4,322 statewide, top 62%, 339 students, 69% FRL); Coleman J H (math 47% / reading 45%, grade D+, #462 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 252 students, 56% FRL); Coleman H S (math 44% / reading 42%, grade F, #708 of 1,632 statewide, top 44%, 203 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.3% of price; built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 121 active listings in the ZIP; 5 units permitted in Coleman County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Coleman County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (5.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 22.5% vs local median 4.5% in Coleman — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.