415 W 12th St · Coleman, TX 76834

$29,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 879 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 36 Days on market

Built 1930 7,815 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Two bedroom, one bath home in need of repair. Structurally sound. Would make an excellent rental property or starter home. Large lot with mature trees.

Key facts

• Large lot
• Mature trees
• 7,815 sq ft lot

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• MATURE TREES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $29k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $392 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($834 rent vs $29k).
• Recommended offer: $28k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.5% vs local median 4.5% in Coleman — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#454 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Coleman ISD (town): math 42% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #439 of 826 in TX (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Coleman El (math 32% / reading 27%, grade F, #2,525 of 4,322 statewide, top 62%, 339 students, 69% FRL); Coleman J H (math 47% / reading 45%, grade D+, #462 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 252 students, 56% FRL); Coleman H S (math 44% / reading 42%, grade F, #708 of 1,632 statewide, top 44%, 203 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 121 active listings in the ZIP; 5 units permitted in Coleman County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($200 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (5.7% local appreciation)).
• Coleman County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($28k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.3% of price; built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $28,130 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.88% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 57.89%
• DSCR: 3.58
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $83,505
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1004 San Saba St	0.62mi	2/1.0	900 (+2%)	6mo	$55,000	$61	62
516 W 4th St	0.49mi	2/1.0	950 (+8%)	10mo	$133,000	$140	55
501 E 10th St	0.48mi	2/1.0	912 (+4%)	20mo	$62,500	$69	54
1215 Llano	0.55mi	2/2.0	976 (+11%)	5mo	$149,000	$153	47
104 Hollywood	0.34mi	2/1.0	1,002 (+14%)	22mo	$94,900	$95	43
408 E 4th St	0.62mi	2/1.0	752 (-14%)	21mo	$49,900	$66	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.66% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 65.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.04×
• Total profit: $32,793
• Equity at exit: $17,612

10-year hold

• IRR: 63.0%
• Equity multiple: 10.51×
• Total profit: $77,197
• Equity at exit: $31,419

Cash invested: $8,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76834

• Home prices YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 121
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $834 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$152
• Tax from tax record: −$103 /mo · $1,237/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$175
• Net cashflow: $392

Break-even live

Break-even rent $338

Max offer price $29,000

Occupancy floor 48%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $408	-5% $400	+0% $392	+5% $383	+10% $375
Rent	-10% $326	-5% $359	+0% $392	+5% $425	+10% $458
Rate	-1.0pp $406	-0.5pp $399	base $392	+0.5pp $384	+1.0pp $377

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,250
• Closing costs: $870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2025-06-20
   status Pending
2. 2025-06-10
   historical
3. 2025-05-09
   status Active
4. 2025-03-07
   status Pending
5. 2025-03-03
   listed $29,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,237 · $103/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,237 · $103/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,009
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,624
• − Property taxes: −$1,237
• − Insurance: −$145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$801
• − Management: −$801
• − Depreciation: −$844
• Taxable income: $4,558
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,094
• After-tax cash flow: $3,607/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Coleman ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814550
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $31,765
• Composite: 33.18/100
• National rank: #5540
• State rank: #439 of 826 in TX

Livability — Coleman

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #454
• US rank: #9173

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Coleman, TX
• Population (ZIP): 4,861

Population outlook (Coleman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 7,321 people
• By 2030: 6,834 · -6.7%
• By 2040: 5,968 · -18.5%
• By 2050: 5,283 · -27.8%
• By 2075: 4,205 · -42.6%
• By 2100: 3,405 · -53.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 13% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Italian 16% Slovak 8% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 21%

Political lean MEDSL · Coleman

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+79.0) · D 10.3% · R 89.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.1pp toward R · 2008: -64.0pp · 2024: -79.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+79.0 2020: R+77.3 2016: R+76.8 2012: R+73.7 2008: R+64.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.66%
• Current HPI: 123.8456
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

5 events — show timeline

• 2025-06-20 Pending — NTREIS
• 2025-06-10 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-05-09 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2025-03-07 Pending — NTREIS
• 2025-03-03 Listed $29,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+14.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,237 · -11.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.