3248 Dudley Ave

Niagara Falls, NY 14303

$89,900B

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 832 sqft · Built 1933 · SingleFamily · Pending · 90 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,356/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax + insurance: −$668
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $-68/mo
• Annual: $-818/yr
• Cap rate: 11.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.70%
• DSCR: 1.83
• 1% rule: 1.51%
• Cash to close: $25,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-68 ($-818/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $78k (13.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($85k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $78k (13.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#956 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Niagara Falls City School District (urban): math 26% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #578 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $460/mo; built in 1933 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 74 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.5% vs local median 7.7% in Niagara Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($46k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1933 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?