3248 Dudley Ave · Niagara Falls, NY 14303

$89,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 832 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 90 Days on market

Built 1933 3,060 sqft lot Est $97k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.9/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks

This classic three-bedroom bungalow sits on a corner lot in Niagara Falls and offers a practical layout with a first-floor bedroom and full bathroom, along with two additional bedrooms on the second floor. The home features a bright interior with updated flooring upstairs, a full bath with a tub and shower on the main level, and a full basement that provides ample storage or potential workshop space. Built in 1933, the property offers approximately 832 square feet of living space per public records, with a durable metal roof, forced air natural gas heating, and public water and sewer connections. Situated on a 3,057 square foot lot, this property presents a solid opportunity for homeownersh

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Full bathroom
• Full basement

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• FIRST FLOOR BEDROOM
• FULL BATHROOM
• UPDATED FLOORING
• FULL BASEMENT
• METAL ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-68 ($-818/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $78k (13.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $78k (13.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 11.5% vs local median 7.7% in Niagara Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#956 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Niagara Falls City School District (urban): math 26% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #578 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 74 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($46k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($85k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $460/mo; built in 1933 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $77,865 (13.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1933 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.70%
• DSCR: 1.83
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $97,344
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3504 Walnut Ave	0.24mi	3/1.0	840 (+1%)	3mo	$98,000	$117	85
3331 Church Ave	0.19mi	3/1.0	902 (+8%)	6mo	$145,000	$161	72
81 A St	0.48mi	2/1.0 (-1)	832 (0%)	9mo	$33,000	$40	65
3314 Ely Ave	0.06mi	3/1.0	720 (-14%)	14mo	$123,000	$171	63
324 38th St	0.21mi	2/1.0 (-1)	912 (+10%)	10mo	$78,500	$86	61
3028 Welch Ave	0.29mi	3/1.5	942 (+13%)	4mo	$99,000	$105	59
559 31st St	0.30mi	2/1.0 (-1)	725 (-13%)	2mo	$89,500	$123	58
84 A St	0.51mi	2/1.0 (-1)	720 (-14%)	1mo	$86,000	$119	48
2790 Monroe Ave	0.30mi	2/1.0 (-1)	954 (+15%)	13mo	$116,000	$122	46
46 B St	0.44mi	2/1.0 (-1)	720 (-14%)	8mo	$70,000	$97	46
422 26th St	0.54mi	2/1.0 (-1)	760 (-9%)	12mo	$67,500	$89	46
2216 Ferry Ave	0.75mi	2/1.0 (-1)	920 (+11%)	14mo	$105,000	$114	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-18,568
• Equity at exit: $13,404

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-20,379
• Equity at exit: $7,773

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14303

• Home prices YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 74
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,356 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax from tax record: −$170 /mo · $2,042/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$460 /mo · $5,525/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $-68

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,442

Max offer price $77,865

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-17	-5% $-43	+0% $-68	+5% $-94	+10% $-119
Rent	-10% $-175	-5% $-122	+0% $-68	+5% $-15	+10% $39
Rate	-1.0pp $-23	-0.5pp $-45	base $-68	+0.5pp $-91	+1.0pp $-115

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3626 Dudley Ave Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	700	$1,250	$1.79	44d	1	0.06mi
3340 Simmons Ave Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,550	$1.54	15d	1	0.10mi
3036 Welch Ave Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	2d	1	0.27mi
2727 Monroe Ave Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	960	$1,500	$1.56	11d	1	0.43mi
420 25th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1101	$1,500	$1.36	44d	1	0.60mi
434 23rd St Unit Upper Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	816	$1,100	$1.35	15d	1	0.75mi
2473 Pierce Ave Unit 2 Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	4d	1	0.96mi
1780 Falls St Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,200	$1.09	44d	1	1.00mi
420 18th St Unit Upper Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	816	$1,150	$1.41	44d	1	1.03mi
769 19th St Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.5	960	$1,400	$1.46	22d	1	1.06mi
1427 Fort Ave Unit 2 Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1058	$950	$0.90	44d	1	1.19mi
2463 South Ave Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	1008	$1,100	$1.09	17d	1	1.23mi
754 15th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	990	$1,100	$1.11	24d	1	1.30mi
613 13th St Unit 1 Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	750	$1,100	$1.47	17d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2025-12-31
   status Pending
2. 2025-10-02
   listed $89,900 Active
3. 2020-07-31
   historical
4. 2020-05-20
   price $50,000
5. 2020-01-29
   listed $60,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,042 · $170/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,042 · $170/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AE · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,274
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$2,042
• − Insurance: −$5,974
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,302
• − Management: −$1,302
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable loss: −$1,998
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$479
• After-tax cash flow: $-338/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Niagara Falls City School District
• NCES district ID: 3620820
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $32,488
• Composite: 24.5/100
• National rank: #7655
• State rank: #578 of 590 in NY

Livability — Niagara Falls

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #956
• US rank: #18749

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Niagara Falls, NY
• County: Niagara County · 157,377 people
• City population: 62,983
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 6,156
• Household income: $45,646
• Rent vs Own: 55.7% rent · 44.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 230.0

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Two or more races 18% Hispanic / Latino 15% Black 12% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3%
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -5.37%
• Current HPI: 311.8094
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+49.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-31 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2025-10-02 Listed $89,900 WNYREIS
• 2020-07-31 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2020-05-20 Price Changed $50,000 WNYREIS
• 2020-01-29 Listed $60,000 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,042 · +19.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.