18020 S Sonoita Hwy

Vail, AZ 85641

$330,000D+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,240 sqft · Built 2000 · Manufactured · Active · 32 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,453/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,731
• Tax + insurance: −$232
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$515
• Net cashflow: $-24/mo
• Annual: $-288/yr
• Cap rate: 6.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.31%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $92,400

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $330k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-24 ($-288/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $326k (1.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $245k (25.7% below list).
• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($320k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $245k (25.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#51 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Vail Unified District (4413) (rural): math 52% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #26 of 249 in AZ (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Sycamore Elementary School (math 47% / reading 56%, grade C-, #255 of 1,109 statewide, top 23%, 702 students, 24% FRL); Corona Foothills Middle School (math 45% / reading 52%, grade C-, #32 of 218 statewide, top 15%, 606 students, 20% FRL); Mica Mountain High (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #60 of 381 statewide, top 16%, 1,161 students, 18% FRL) — zoned schools at 21% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 662 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 8 sale attempts since 31y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.4% in Vail — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.