18020 S Sonoita Hwy · Vail, AZ 85641

$330,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,240 sqft · Manufactured · 32 Days on market

Built 2000 5.25 ac lot Est $363k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• ARV discount +11.6/15.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Seller will accept or counter offers between $299,500 and $315,000 depending on terms of offer. ENOY this 5 ACRE property near the top of the hill with SWEEPING VIEWS from almost anywhere in the house. Country living 15 minutes away from shopping! This remodeled 2240 SF, 4 bedroom, 2 full bath home also features a separate family room, and office/den off of the master with its own patio. Recent updates: paint inside and out, floors in kitchen and baths, light fixtures, farmhouse style fans, remodeled kitchen, stainless steel appliances, newer HVAC and roof, and more. Come. See. Stay!

Key facts

• 5.25 acre lot
• Built 2000
• Listed 32 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot dimensions approximately 335' x 675' x 342' x 676'; Zoned Pima County - RH; Living area reported as 2,240; Parcel number 305-94-009B

Exterior

• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Water via well agreement; Septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured home; One story; Faces south
• Construction: Frame construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Shed(s); Hillside lot; Dirt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Exhaust fan; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Refrigerator; Gas range; Microwave
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (propane); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with sink; Washer included; Dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $330k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-24 ($-288/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $326k (1.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $245k (25.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $245k (25.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.4% in Vail — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#51 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Vail Unified District (4413) (rural): math 52% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #26 of 249 in AZ (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Sycamore Elementary School (math 47% / reading 56%, grade C-, #255 of 1,109 statewide, top 23%, 702 students, 24% FRL); Corona Foothills Middle School (math 45% / reading 52%, grade C-, #32 of 218 statewide, top 15%, 606 students, 20% FRL); Mica Mountain High (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #60 of 381 statewide, top 16%, 1,161 students, 18% FRL) — zoned schools at 21% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 662 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($320k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 31y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $245,342 (25.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.31%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $362,880
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18000 S Sonoita Hwy	0.09mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,012 (-10%)	11mo	$324,990	$162	61
17818 S Sonoita Hwy	0.31mi	4/2.0	1,960 (-12%)	15mo	$291,000	$148	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.02% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-50,075
• Equity at exit: $49,204

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-24,464
• Equity at exit: $28,532

Cash invested: $92,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85641

• Home prices YoY: -22.1%
• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 662
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,453 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,731
• Tax from tax record: −$94 /mo · $1,130/yr
• Insurance: −$138
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$515
• Net cashflow: $-24

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,484

Max offer price $325,759

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $163	-5% $69	+0% $-24	+5% $-117	+10% $-211
Rent	-10% $-218	-5% $-121	+0% $-24	+5% $73	+10% $170
Rate	-1.0pp $142	-0.5pp $60	base $-24	+0.5pp $-110	+1.0pp $-197

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,500
• Closing costs: $9,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 43 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $330,000 Active 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $330,000 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $330,000 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $330,000 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $330,000 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $330,000 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $330,000 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $330,000 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $330,000 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $330,000 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $330,000 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $330,000 Active 15 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $330,000 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $330,000 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $330,000 Active 12 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $330,000 Active 11 DOM
17. 2026-05-20
    listed $330,000 Active
18. 2022-08-08
    status Pending 590-char remark

    Show marketing remark (590 chars)

    Seller will accept or counter offers between $299,500 and $315,000 depending on terms of offer. ENOY this 5 ACRE property near the top of the hill with SWEEPING VIEWS from almost anywhere in the house. Country living 15 minutes away from shopping! This remodeled 2240 SF, 4 bedroom, 2 full bath home also features a separate family room, and office/den off of the master with its own patio. Recent updates: paint inside and out, floors in kitchen and baths, light fixtures, farmhouse style fans, remodeled kitchen, stainless steel appliances, newer HVAC and roof, and more. Come. See. Stay!

19. 2022-08-05
    soldstatus $315,000 Closed 590-char remark

    Show marketing remark (590 chars)

    Seller will accept or counter offers between $299,500 and $315,000 depending on terms of offer. ENOY this 5 ACRE property near the top of the hill with SWEEPING VIEWS from almost anywhere in the house. Country living 15 minutes away from shopping! This remodeled 2240 SF, 4 bedroom, 2 full bath home also features a separate family room, and office/den off of the master with its own patio. Recent updates: paint inside and out, floors in kitchen and baths, light fixtures, farmhouse style fans, remodeled kitchen, stainless steel appliances, newer HVAC and roof, and more. Come. See. Stay!

20. 2022-08-05
    soldstatus $315,000

    Show marketing remark (590 chars)

    Seller will accept or counter offers between $299,500 and $315,000 depending on terms of offer. ENOY this 5 ACRE property near the top of the hill with SWEEPING VIEWS from almost anywhere in the house. Country living 15 minutes away from shopping! This remodeled 2240 SF, 4 bedroom, 2 full bath home also features a separate family room, and office/den off of the master with its own patio. Recent updates: paint inside and out, floors in kitchen and baths, light fixtures, farmhouse style fans, remodeled kitchen, stainless steel appliances, newer HVAC and roof, and more. Come. See. Stay!

21. 2022-07-11
    historical Active Contingent 590-char remark

    Show marketing remark (590 chars)

    Seller will accept or counter offers between $299,500 and $315,000 depending on terms of offer. ENOY this 5 ACRE property near the top of the hill with SWEEPING VIEWS from almost anywhere in the house. Country living 15 minutes away from shopping! This remodeled 2240 SF, 4 bedroom, 2 full bath home also features a separate family room, and office/den off of the master with its own patio. Recent updates: paint inside and out, floors in kitchen and baths, light fixtures, farmhouse style fans, remodeled kitchen, stainless steel appliances, newer HVAC and roof, and more. Come. See. Stay!

22. 2022-07-06
    listed $299,500 Active 590-char remark

    Show marketing remark (590 chars)

    Seller will accept or counter offers between $299,500 and $315,000 depending on terms of offer. ENOY this 5 ACRE property near the top of the hill with SWEEPING VIEWS from almost anywhere in the house. Country living 15 minutes away from shopping! This remodeled 2240 SF, 4 bedroom, 2 full bath home also features a separate family room, and office/den off of the master with its own patio. Recent updates: paint inside and out, floors in kitchen and baths, light fixtures, farmhouse style fans, remodeled kitchen, stainless steel appliances, newer HVAC and roof, and more. Come. See. Stay!

23. 2020-06-22
    soldstatus $169,900
24. 2020-06-19
    soldstatus $169,900 Closed 456-char remark

    Show marketing remark (456 chars)

    Ideal country living 15 minutes away from shopping and civilization. The outdoor deck is the perfect place to take in the local wildlife and views of the Rincon Mountains all from your own 5 acre lot. Higher elevation means more views and lower temps, and the home is located on the snow-line. Hike, bike or ride on nearby trails, including the Arizona Trail. Horses are permitted. Come. See. Stay! Buyers to verify with lenders eligibility for VA and FHA.

25. 2020-05-01
    status Pending 456-char remark

    Show marketing remark (456 chars)

    Ideal country living 15 minutes away from shopping and civilization. The outdoor deck is the perfect place to take in the local wildlife and views of the Rincon Mountains all from your own 5 acre lot. Higher elevation means more views and lower temps, and the home is located on the snow-line. Hike, bike or ride on nearby trails, including the Arizona Trail. Horses are permitted. Come. See. Stay! Buyers to verify with lenders eligibility for VA and FHA.

26. 2020-03-28
    historical Active Contingent 456-char remark

    Show marketing remark (456 chars)

    Ideal country living 15 minutes away from shopping and civilization. The outdoor deck is the perfect place to take in the local wildlife and views of the Rincon Mountains all from your own 5 acre lot. Higher elevation means more views and lower temps, and the home is located on the snow-line. Hike, bike or ride on nearby trails, including the Arizona Trail. Horses are permitted. Come. See. Stay! Buyers to verify with lenders eligibility for VA and FHA.

27. 2019-12-02
    listed $169,900 Active 456-char remark

    Show marketing remark (456 chars)

    Ideal country living 15 minutes away from shopping and civilization. The outdoor deck is the perfect place to take in the local wildlife and views of the Rincon Mountains all from your own 5 acre lot. Higher elevation means more views and lower temps, and the home is located on the snow-line. Hike, bike or ride on nearby trails, including the Arizona Trail. Horses are permitted. Come. See. Stay! Buyers to verify with lenders eligibility for VA and FHA.

28. 2019-12-01
    historical
29. 2019-10-23
    status Active
30. 2019-09-23
    historical Active Contingent
31. 2019-09-06
    price $169,900
32. 2019-08-21
    price $174,500
33. 2019-07-28
    listed $180,000 Active
34. 2014-12-30
    soldstatus $45,000 Closed
35. 2014-12-12
    status Pending
36. 2014-12-10
    price $49,900
37. 2014-11-14
    price $59,900
38. 2014-10-17
    listed $69,900 Active
39. 1999-03-11
    soldstatus $47,000
40. 1997-03-18
    soldstatus $43,500
41. 1996-09-05
    listed $45,000
42. 1995-12-20
    historical
43. 1995-09-15
    listed $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,130 · $94/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,178 · $182/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,048/yr (+$87/mo · 92.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,441
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,485
• − Property taxes: −$1,130
• − Insurance: −$1,650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,355
• − Management: −$2,355
• − Depreciation: −$9,600
• Taxable loss: −$6,134
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,472
• After-tax cash flow: $1,184/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Vail Unified District (4413)
• NCES district ID: 0408850
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $77,126
• Composite: 49.1/100
• National rank: #2051
• State rank: #26 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Vail

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #51
• US rank: #9543

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• City population: 34,752
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 34,752
• Household income: $131,164
• Rent vs Own: 5.9% rent · 94.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 42.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 15% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 7% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.78%
• Current HPI: 250.1814
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.02%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+633.3% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $330,000 MLSSAZ
• 2022-08-08 Pending — MLSSAZ
• 2022-08-05 Sold (Public Records) $315,000 Public Records
• 2022-08-05 Sold (MLS) $315,000 MLSSAZ
• 2022-07-11 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2022-07-06 Listed $299,500 MLSSAZ
• 2020-06-22 Sold (Public Records) $169,900 Public Records
• 2020-06-19 Sold (MLS) $169,900 MLSSAZ
• 2020-05-01 Pending — MLSSAZ
• 2020-03-28 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2019-12-02 Listed $169,900 MLSSAZ
• 2019-12-01 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2019-10-23 Relisted — MLSSAZ
• 2019-09-23 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2019-09-06 Price Changed $169,900 MLSSAZ
• 2019-08-21 Price Changed $174,500 MLSSAZ
• 2019-07-28 Listed $180,000 MLSSAZ
• 2014-12-30 Sold (MLS) $45,000 MLSSAZ
• 2014-12-12 Pending — MLSSAZ
• 2014-12-10 Price Changed $49,900 MLSSAZ
• 2014-11-14 Price Changed $59,900 MLSSAZ
• 2014-10-17 Listed $69,900 MLSSAZ
• 1999-03-11 Sold (Public Records) $47,000 Public Records
• 1997-03-18 Sold (MLS) $43,500 MLSSAZ
• 1996-09-05 Listed $45,000 MLSSAZ
• 1995-12-20 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 1995-09-15 Listed $45,000 MLSSAZ

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,130 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.