5 Tawny Pass

Centereach, NY 11720

$699,000D-

5 bd · 4.0 ba · 1,955 sqft · Built 1970 · SingleFamily · Active · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,293/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,666
• Tax + insurance: −$736
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,112
• Net cashflow: $-220/mo
• Annual: $-2,644/yr
• Cap rate: 5.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.35%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $195,720

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $699k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-220 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $660k (5.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $529k (24.3% below list).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($689k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $529k (24.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $21k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#362 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Three Village Central School District (suburban): math 81% / reading 83% proficiency, ranked #31 of 590 in NY (top 5%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 5% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Arrowhead Elementary School (math 62% / reading 72%, grade B+, #525 of 2,108 statewide, top 27%, 571 students, 21% FRL); Robert Cushman Murphy Junior High School (math 67% / reading 77%, grade A, #76 of 729 statewide, top 11%, 667 students, 18% FRL); Ward Melville Senior High School (math 97% / reading 92%, grade A+, #117 of 1,100 statewide, top 11%, 1,507 students, 15% FRL).
• Market conditions: 148 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 72% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.8% in Centereach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $5,293/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($135k/yr) (locally 436% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.