5 Tawny Pass · Centereach, NY 11720

$699,000

5 bd · 4.0 ba · 1,955 sqft · SingleFamily · 15 Days on market

Built 1970 0.37 ac lot Est $667k · at est. ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.6/30.0
• Schools +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +5.3/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Spacious expanded ranch in South Setauket within the highly regarded Three Village School District. Set on a . 37-acre lot, this well-maintained home offers 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, CAC, approximately 1,955sqft, plus additional areas that provide flexible living options for extended family, guests, home office use, recreation, or privacy for larger households. The home is connected to sewers, a rare and valuable feature in many Suffolk County neighborhoods, and includes a roof approximately 7 years young, in-ground sprinklers, spacious patio area, oversized vegetable garden, storage shed, and in-ground pool. Interior is clean and cared for with a comfortable layout, offering buyers the chan

Key facts

• In ground sprinklers
• Well maintained home
• Spacious patio area

Tags

• EXPANDED RANCH
• WELL MAINTAINED HOME
• CONNECTED TO SEWERS
• IN GROUND SPRINKLERS
• SPACIOUS PATIO AREA
• OVERSIZED VEGETABLE GARDEN

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Public sewer; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Sewer connected; Underground utilities; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: In-ground private pool; Frame construction; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas oven; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances; Indirect water heater
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on main level
• Bathrooms: 4 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Wall/window air conditioning units; Baseboard heating
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Cathedral ceilings; Eat-in kitchen; Formal dining room; Primary bathroom; Master bedroom on main level; Washer/dryer hookup
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $699k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-220 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $660k (5.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $529k (24.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $529k (24.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.8% in Centereach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#362 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Three Village Central School District (suburban): math 81% / reading 83% proficiency, ranked #31 of 590 in NY (top 5%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 5% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Arrowhead Elementary School (math 62% / reading 72%, grade B+, #525 of 2,108 statewide, top 27%, 571 students, 21% FRL); Robert Cushman Murphy Junior High School (math 67% / reading 77%, grade A, #76 of 729 statewide, top 11%, 667 students, 18% FRL); Ward Melville Senior High School (math 97% / reading 92%, grade A+, #117 of 1,100 statewide, top 11%, 1,507 students, 15% FRL).
• Market conditions: 148 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,293/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($135k/yr) (locally 436% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $21k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($689k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 72% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $529,326 (24.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.35%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $666,655
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
33 Segatogue Ln	0.26mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,995 (+2%)	1mo	$680,000	$341	71
59 Holiday Park Dr	0.44mi	4/1.5 (-1)	2,001 (+2%)	1mo	$655,000	$327	60
37 Fiesta Dr	0.49mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,844 (-6%)	4mo	$777,000	$421	53
25 Wilson St	0.63mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,900 (-3%)	0mo	$655,000	$345	52
324 Hawkins Rd	0.34mi	4/1.5 (-1)	1,794 (-8%)	6mo	$620,000	$346	50
13 Lark Dr	0.54mi	4/1.5 (-1)	1,850 (-5%)	6mo	$580,000	$314	46
3 Rocket Ct	0.75mi	4/1.5 (-1)	2,024 (+4%)	1mo	$650,000	$321	44
4 Johnson Ct	0.47mi	4/1.5 (-1)	1,721 (-12%)	4mo	$465,000	$270	40
12 Executive Rd	0.74mi	4/1.5 (-1)	2,024 (+4%)	6mo	$550,000	$272	39
22 Kennedy Dr	0.51mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,696 (-13%)	3mo	$750,000	$442	39
18 Lark Dr	0.53mi	4/1.5 (-1)	1,680 (-14%)	2mo	$470,000	$280	35
14 Holiday Park Dr	0.53mi	4/1.5 (-1)	1,710 (-12%)	6mo	$623,150	$364	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-127,487
• Equity at exit: $104,223

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-129,831
• Equity at exit: $60,437

Cash invested: $195,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11720

• Active inventory: 148
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,293 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,666
• Tax from tax record: −$445 /mo · $5,342/yr
• Insurance: −$291
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,112
• Net cashflow: $-220

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,572

Max offer price $660,072

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $175	-5% $-23	+0% $-220	+5% $-418	+10% $-616
Rent	-10% $-639	-5% $-429	+0% $-220	+5% $-11	+10% $198
Rate	-1.0pp $132	-0.5pp $-43	base $-220	+0.5pp $-401	+1.0pp $-586

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $174,750
• Closing costs: $20,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
25 Nostrand Ave Selden, NY	4.0	2.0	2055	$4,250	$2.07	0d	1	0.78mi
14 Green Pl South Setauket, NY	4.0	2.5	2550	$5,200	$2.04	0d	1	0.94mi
21 Fairway Dr South Setauket, NY	4.0	2.5	2388	$5,000	$2.09	45d	1	1.00mi
127 Berkeley Ave Selden, NY	5.0	2.0	1598	$4,500	$2.82	21d	1	1.24mi
63 Sunflower Ridge Rd South Setauket, NY	4.0	2.5	2479	$5,300	$2.14	26d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $699,000 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $699,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $699,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $699,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $699,000 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $699,000 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $699,000 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $699,000 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   remarks 699-char remark
10. 2026-06-02
    listed $699,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,342 · $445/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,578 · $715/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,236/yr (+$270/mo · 60.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 72% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $63,519
• − Mortgage interest: −$39,155
• − Property taxes: −$5,342
• − Insurance: −$3,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,082
• − Management: −$5,082
• − Depreciation: −$20,335
• Taxable loss: −$14,970
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,593
• After-tax cash flow: $948/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Three Village Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3628200
• Math proficiency: 81% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 83% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $121,671
• Composite: 76.17/100
• National rank: #113
• State rank: #31 of 590 in NY

Livability — Centereach

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #362
• US rank: #6174

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Centereach, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 29,292
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 29,292
• Household income: $134,898
• Rent vs Own: 12.6% rent · 87.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 436.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 15% Asian 7% Two or more races 7% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -633.07%
• Current HPI: 347.7369
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-6.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Price Changed $699,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-18 Listed $750,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,342 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.