5400 Creek Valley Dr

Arlington, TX 76018

$210,000D-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 958 sqft · Built 1982 · SingleFamily · Active · 239 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,756/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax + insurance: −$485
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$369
• Net cashflow: $-198/mo
• Annual: $-2,381/yr
• Cap rate: 5.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.05%
• DSCR: 0.82
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $58,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-198 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $175k (16.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $176k (16.4% below list).
• It's been on market 239 days — a 12% lower offer ($185k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $175k (16.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#75 in TX, #2,697 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, commute F.
• Arlington ISD (urban): math 24% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #629 of 826 in TX (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 76 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 18,938 units permitted in Tarrant County in 2024 (8,336 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tarrant County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.7% in Arlington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 239 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.