5400 Creek Valley Dr · Arlington, TX 76018

$210,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 958 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 239 Days on market

Built 1982 7,231 sqft lot $219/sqft · 14% below area Est $243k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.6/15.0
• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 3 bedroom family home in quiet subdivision, with an easy walk to the elementary school! The room considered the living room could be a 4th bedroom or home office, and the dining room the living room. Large utility room off kitchen. The oversized backyard is perfect for entertaining and letting the kids play. Master bedroom is the converted garage. Easy trip to I-20 and SH 360 for an easy commute. Plus, close to entertainment, shopping and dining.

Key facts

• Converted garage
• Easy commute
• Oversized backyard

Tags

• OVERSIZED BACKYARD
• CONVERTED GARAGE
• EASY COMMUTE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-198 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $175k (16.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $176k (16.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $175k (16.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.7% in Arlington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#75 in TX, #2,697 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, commute F.
• Arlington ISD (urban): math 24% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #629 of 826 in TX (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 76 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 18,938 units permitted in Tarrant County in 2024 (8,336 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tarrant County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 239 days — a 12% lower offer ($185k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $174,956 (16.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 239 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.05%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $243,207
• List price: $210,000
• Delta: -13.65%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5504 Creekridge Dr	0.25mi	2/2.0	1,076 (+12%)	2mo	$198,000	$184	62
5514 Bridgeton Dr	0.21mi	2/1.0	872 (-9%)	18mo	$220,000	$252	60
1702 Fieldstone Ct	0.72mi	3/1.0 (+1)	994 (+4%)	3mo	$245,000	$246	52
5522 Portsmouth Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,069 (+12%)	9mo	$210,000	$196	50
1404 Thackery Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,069 (+12%)	8mo	$250,000	$234	46
1444 Grovecrest Dr	0.67mi	2/1.0	1,014 (+6%)	18mo	$239,500	$236	43
1609 Crimson Ct	0.69mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,080 (+13%)	24mo	$280,000	$259	18

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.39% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-49,355
• Equity at exit: $31,312

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.19×
• Total profit: $-69,928
• Equity at exit: $18,157

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76018

• Home prices YoY: -2.8%
• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 76
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,756 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$397 /mo · $4,766/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$369
• Net cashflow: $-198

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,008

Max offer price $174,956

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5503 Creek Valley Dr Arlington, TX	2.0	1.0	1063	$1,795	$1.69	43d	1	0.11mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $210,000 Active 239 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $210,000 Active 238 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $210,000 Active 237 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $210,000 Active 236 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $210,000 Active 234 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $210,000 Active 230 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $210,000 Active 229 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $210,000 Active 228 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $210,000 Active 225 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $210,000 Active 224 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $210,000 Active 223 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $210,000 Active 222 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $210,000 Active 221 DOM
14. 2026-04-09
    price $220,000 459-char remark

    Show marketing remark (459 chars)

    Charming 3 bedroom family home in quiet subdivision, with an easy walk to the elementary school! The room considered the living room could be a 4th bedroom or home office, and the dining room the living room. Large utility room off kitchen. The oversized backyard is perfect for entertaining and letting the kids play. Master bedroom is the converted garage. Easy trip to I-20 and SH 360 for an easy commute. Plus, close to entertainment, shopping and dining.

15. 2025-12-30
    price $240,000 459-char remark

    Show marketing remark (459 chars)

    Charming 3 bedroom family home in quiet subdivision, with an easy walk to the elementary school! The room considered the living room could be a 4th bedroom or home office, and the dining room the living room. Large utility room off kitchen. The oversized backyard is perfect for entertaining and letting the kids play. Master bedroom is the converted garage. Easy trip to I-20 and SH 360 for an easy commute. Plus, close to entertainment, shopping and dining.

16. 2025-10-22
    listed $250,000 Active 459-char remark

    Show marketing remark (459 chars)

    Charming 3 bedroom family home in quiet subdivision, with an easy walk to the elementary school! The room considered the living room could be a 4th bedroom or home office, and the dining room the living room. Large utility room off kitchen. The oversized backyard is perfect for entertaining and letting the kids play. Master bedroom is the converted garage. Easy trip to I-20 and SH 360 for an easy commute. Plus, close to entertainment, shopping and dining.

17. 2018-02-06
    soldstatus
18. 2018-01-12
    historical
19. 2018-01-06
    listed $137,500
20. 2013-09-23
    soldstatus
21. 2000-04-28
    soldstatus
22. 1995-09-18
    soldstatus
23. 1990-10-26
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,766 · $397/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,766 · $397/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,077
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$4,766
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,686
• − Management: −$1,686
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable loss: −$5,984
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,436
• After-tax cash flow: $-944/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Arlington ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808700
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $50,873
• Composite: 25.42/100
• National rank: #7458
• State rank: #629 of 826 in TX

Livability — Arlington

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #75
• US rank: #2697

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Arlington, TX
• County: Tarrant County · 2,033,669 people
• City population: 366,588
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 26,834
• Household income: $88,288
• Rent vs Own: 23.6% rent · 76.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 598.0

Population outlook (Tarrant County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,380,417 people
• By 2030: 2,578,900 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 2,974,995 · +25.0%
• By 2050: 3,350,489 · +40.8%
• By 2075: 4,216,909 · +77.2%
• By 2100: 4,741,527 · +99.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.76)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 34% Black 24% White 23% Asian 14% Two or more races 14% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Romanian 1% Lithuanian 0%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 11% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tarrant

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.1) · D 46.7% · R 51.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -5.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.1 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+8.7 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.64%
• Current HPI: 296.8765
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.39%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+60.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $220,000 NTREIS
• 2025-12-30 Price Changed $240,000 NTREIS
• 2025-10-22 Listed $250,000 NTREIS
• 2018-02-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-01-12 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2018-01-06 Listed $137,500 NTREIS
• 2013-09-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2000-04-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1995-09-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1990-10-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,766 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.