3515 Club Cir

Indian Lake Estates, FL 33854

$77,950D

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 648 sqft · Built 1965 · SingleFamily · Active · 45 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,004/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$409
• Tax + insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$350
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$211
• Net cashflow: $-99/mo
• Annual: $-1,182/yr
• Cap rate: 4.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.42%
• DSCR: 0.76
• 1% rule: 1.29%
• Cash to close: $21,826

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $78k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-99 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $61k (22.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $78k).
• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($76k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $61k (22.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $881 of equity ($538 loan paydown + $343 appreciation (0.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 35% of rent.
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
• What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?