3515 Club Cir · Indian Lake Estates, FL 33854

$77,950

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 648 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 45 Days on market

Built 1965 1,459 sqft lot $350/mo HOA · 35% of rent ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.2/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this 1 bedroom 1 bathroom villa. A clean and cozy unit ready for move in. The kitchen island has been professionally renovated offering an updated modern look with quartz countertop. The bathroom has a modern tile walk in shower. Entire unit has tile flooring throughout. A Separate covered sunroom allowing to relax and enjoy the delightful lake views. This is a great opportunity for a comfortable living space. Assigned parking space for your own vehicle. A short walk to the clubhouse and all the wonderful amenities. The On-site amenities include; Laundry, Swimming pool, Auditorium Basketball Courts, Bocce Ball court, Car wash, Chapel, Horseshoe pits, Game room, Beauty salon, Libr

Key facts

• Quartz countertop
• Lake views
• Covered sunroom

Tags

• KITCHEN ISLAND
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOP
• MODERN TILE WALK IN SHOWER
• TILE FLOORING
• COVERED SUNROOM
• LAKE VIEWS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: No lease restrictions reported
• Financial info: Total monthly fees $350; Total annual fees $4,200
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee of $350 (includes cable TV, pool, water); Association name: jessica soto; Community amenities include fitness center, pool, and tennis courts; Golf carts allowed; Pets allowed (max 20 lbs)

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Water connected; Sewer connected; Cable connected
• Home design: Residential villa; One level; North-facing
• Construction: Stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on public records
• Exterior features: Exterior lighting; Paved road

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator; Disposal
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Flooring: Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Thermostat; Disposal; Range; Refrigerator; Ceramic tile flooring; Central heating; Central air
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in common area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $78k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-99 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $61k (22.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $78k).
• Recommended offer: $61k (22.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $881 of equity ($538 loan paydown + $343 appreciation (0.4% local appreciation)).
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($76k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 35% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $60,548 (22.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
8. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
9. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 4.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.42%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.44% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-6,696
• Equity at exit: $24,365

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-868
• Equity at exit: $30,707

Cash invested: $21,826 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33854

• Home prices YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 20
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,004 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$409
• Tax from tax record: −$100 /mo · $1,204/yr
• Insurance: −$32
• HOA: −$350
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$211
• Net cashflow: $-99

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,129

Max offer price $60,548

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,488
• Closing costs: $2,338
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2709 Club Cir Lake Wales, FL	1.0	1.0	648	$950	$1.47	23d	1	0.24mi
1707 Club Cir Unit 1707 Lakeshore, FL	1.0	1.0	648	$1,075	$1.66	23d	1	0.31mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $350 · $4,200/yr
• Likely covers: poolparking

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $77,950 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $77,950 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $77,950 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $77,950 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $77,950 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $83,900 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $83,900 Active 36 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $83,900 Active 35 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $83,900 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $83,900 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $83,900 Active 30 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $83,900 Active 29 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $83,900 Active 28 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    pricedays on market $83,900 Active 27 DOM
15. 2026-05-04
    listed $89,000 Active
16. 2025-06-04
    historical $895
17. 2025-05-09
    listed $895
18. 2025-05-08
    historical
19. 2025-02-14
    price $99,000
20. 2024-11-13
    listed $105,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,204 · $100/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,204 · $100/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,046
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,366
• − Property taxes: −$1,204
• − Insurance: −$390
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$964
• − Management: −$964
• − HOA: −$4,200
• − Depreciation: −$2,268
• Taxable loss: −$2,309
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$554
• After-tax cash flow: $-628/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Indian Lake Estates

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• City population: 33
• Population (ZIP): 481

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 71% White 19% Two or more races 19% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 69%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1%
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 52%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Current HPI: 168.7178
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-16.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Listed $89,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-04 Rental Removed $895 STELLARMLS
• 2025-05-09 Listed for Rent $895 STELLARMLS
• 2025-05-08 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-14 Price Changed $99,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-13 Listed $105,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+9.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,204 · +13.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.