12917 Four Oaks Rd

Carrollwood, FL 33624

$149,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,288 sqft · Built 1987 · Manufactured · Active · 6 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,078/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax + insurance: −$329
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$436
• Net cashflow: $532/mo
• Annual: $6,382/yr
• Cap rate: 10.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.30%
• DSCR: 1.68
• 1% rule: 1.39%
• Cash to close: $41,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $149k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $532 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#150 in FL, #2,274 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, commute A; Watch: amenities D-.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Essrig Elementary School (math 48% / reading 51%, grade D, #1,088 of 2,144 statewide, top 53%, 589 students, 50% FRL); Hill Middle School (math 54% / reading 48%, grade C, #237 of 571 statewide, top 43%, 971 students, 46% FRL); Gaither High School (math 30% / reading 48%, grade F, #312 of 667 statewide, top 48%, 2,123 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools at 49% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.8%/yr); 209 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.