12917 Four Oaks Rd · Carrollwood, FL 33624

$149,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,288 sqft · Manufactured public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1987 10,500 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.5/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Exceptional investment opportunity in the heart of Carrollwood! Situated on an oversized nearly 1/4-acre lot, this property offers tremendous potential for cash buyers, investors, flippers, or those looking to build equity. The expansive lot provides ample space for expansion, outdoor amenities, or future improvements, while the established neighborhood location adds long-term value. With strong upside potential and a desirable Tampa address, this is a rare chance to acquire a property with room to add value and maximize returns. Conveniently located near major roadways, shopping, dining, and everyday conveniences. Property is being sold as-is and is ideal for buyers seeking their next reno

Key facts

• Major roadways
• Shopping
• Oversized lot

Tags

• OVERSIZED LOT
• ESTABLISHED NEIGHBORHOOD
• TAMPA ADDRESS
• ROOM TO ADD VALUE
• MAJOR ROADWAYS
• SHOPPING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.24 acre (100 x 105); One well and one septic on property; Pets allowed
• HOA & community: No HOA association

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Broadband/high-speed internet available
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Single-story; Faces west; Entry level: One
• Construction: Frame construction; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as a manufactured home (double wide)
• Exterior features: Other exterior features; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Other heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $532 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#150 in FL, #2,274 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, commute A; Watch: amenities D-.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Essrig Elementary School (math 48% / reading 51%, grade D, #1,088 of 2,144 statewide, top 53%, 589 students, 50% FRL); Hill Middle School (math 54% / reading 48%, grade C, #237 of 571 statewide, top 43%, 971 students, 46% FRL); Gaither High School (math 30% / reading 48%, grade F, #312 of 667 statewide, top 48%, 2,123 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools at 49% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.8%/yr); 209 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.30%
• DSCR: 1.68
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $3,720
• Equity at exit: $22,216

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.57×
• Total profit: $23,649
• Equity at exit: $12,883

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33624

• Rents YoY: -2.8%
• Active inventory: 209
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,078 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$266 /mo · $3,198/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$436
• Net cashflow: $532

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,405

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $616	-5% $574	+0% $532	+5% $490	+10% $448
Rent	-10% $368	-5% $450	+0% $532	+5% $614	+10% $696
Rate	-1.0pp $607	-0.5pp $570	base $532	+0.5pp $493	+1.0pp $454

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 38 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5102 Lawnton Ct Tampa, FL	2.0	2.0	1049	$1,950	$1.86	6d	1	0.23mi
5102 Lawnton Ct Tampa, FL	2.0	2.0	1049	$1,900	$1.81	18d	1	0.23mi
5105 Lawnton Ct Tampa, FL	2.0	2.0	1049	$2,100	$2.00	26d	1	0.26mi
12715 Raeburn Way Tampa, FL	2.0	2.0	1005	$1,650	$1.64	26d	1	0.27mi
5401 Britwell Ct Tampa, FL	2.0	2.0	1005	$1,650	$1.64	6d	1	0.28mi
12710 Raeburn Way Tampa, FL	2.0	1.5	1143	$1,700	$1.49	23d	1	0.29mi
5214 Timberlan St Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1320	$2,040	$1.55	26d	1	0.34mi
5610 Pinnacle Heights Cir #109 Tampa, FL	2.0	2.0	1164	$1,695	$1.46	4d	1	0.45mi
5608 Pinnacle Heights Cir Tampa, FL	2.0	2.0	1164	$1,695	$1.46	5d	1	0.48mi
5608 Pinnacle Heights Cir Tampa, FL	2.0	2.0	1164	$1,645	$1.41	1d	2	0.48mi
5606 Pinnacle Heights Cir #306 Tampa, FL	2.0	2.0	1164	$1,700	$1.46	26d	1	0.52mi
5620 Tranquility Oaks Dr Tampa, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	881	$1,905	$2.16	0d	24	0.59mi
4949 Marbrisa Dr Tampa, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	839	$1,925	$2.29	1d	19	0.62mi
5401 Hopedale Dr Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1278	$2,400	$1.88	4d	1	0.65mi
13610 S Village Dr #4303 Tampa, FL	2.0	2.0	912	$1,850	$2.03	6d	1	0.74mi
13608 S Village Dr #8203 Tampa, FL	2.0	2.0	1032	$1,800	$1.74	23d	1	0.75mi
11339 Calgary Cir Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1248	$2,350	$1.88	16d	1	0.84mi
5905 Birchwood Dr Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1260	$2,385	$1.89	6d	1	0.98mi
12320 Cloverstone Dr Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1320	$2,050	$1.55	3d	1	1.01mi
5306 Ridgewell Ct Tampa, FL	2.0	2.5	1280	$2,100	$1.64	26d	1	1.08mi
12213 Hidden Brook Dr Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1222	$2,151	$1.76	1d	1	1.10mi
5124 Springwood Dr Tampa, FL	3.0	2.5	1380	$2,700	$1.96	19d	1	1.11mi
4711 Ridge Point Dr Tampa, FL	4.0	2.0	1523	$3,000	$1.97	22d	1	1.13mi
12719 Country Brook Ln Tampa, FL	2.0	2.5	1216	$1,950	$1.60	16d	1	1.14mi
12719 Country Brook Ln Tampa, FL	2.0	2.5	1216	$1,950	$1.60	26d	1	1.14mi
11015 Peking Pl Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1572	$2,695	$1.71	3d	1	1.17mi
14009 Clubhouse Cir Tampa, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	895	$1,813	$2.03	0d	13	1.20mi
14506 Clifty Ct Unit 1251295P Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1657	$5,363	$3.24	0d	1	1.21mi
10803 Fairfield Village Dr Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1185	$2,855	$2.41	26d	1	1.23mi
5102 Belmere Pkwy Tampa, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	962	$1,813	$1.88	0d	16	1.30mi
13941 Clubhouse Dr Tampa, FL	2.0	2.0	1019	$4,000	$3.93	6d	2	1.30mi
13941 Clubhouse Dr Tampa, FL	2.0	2.0	1050	$4,000	$3.81	4d	2	1.30mi
13941 Clubhouse Dr Tampa, FL	2.0	2.0	1019	$4,500	$4.42	5d	1	1.30mi
6405 Crystal Brook Dr Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1416	$4,000	$2.82	26d	1	1.32mi
6201 Gunn Hwy Tampa, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1052	$2,426	$2.31	11d	16	1.37mi
10520 Winrock Pl Tampa, FL	3.0	2.5	1246	$2,550	$2.05	19d	1	1.45mi
10148 Cedar Dune Dr Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1377	$2,365	$1.72	1d	1	1.47mi
4107 Hudson Way Tampa, FL	3.0	3.0	1800	$3,500	$1.94	6d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $149,000 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,000 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   remarks 699-char remark
5. 2026-06-15
   listed $149,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,198 · $266/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,198 · $266/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,938
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$3,198
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,995
• − Management: −$1,995
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable income: $4,325
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,038
• After-tax cash flow: $5,344/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Carrollwood

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #150
• US rank: #2274

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute A Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carrollwood, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 40,533
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 41,346
• Household income: $87,760
• Rent vs Own: 33.1% rent · 66.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1812.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 20% Black 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 10% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 26% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -226.75%
• Current HPI: 368.8474
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.79%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $149,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+18.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,198 · +367.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.